Patriots +3.5 vs. Seahawks
The New England Patriots went into last weekend with everyone thinking they were the worst team in football, and would surely receive a beatdown at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. They had other plans, and QB Jacoby Brissett led his team to a 16-10 massive upset win over the Bengals, destroying every parlay and teaser play for the sportsbooks. Cincy closed as a 7.5-point favorite, so you can see how huge of a win this was for first year head coach Jerod Mayo. The offense wasn’t great for most of the game, but they did what they needed to, and they played very good defense against Joe Burrow and Co.
Seattle looked to cruise in the second half of their Week 1 game against the Denver Broncos at home, going up 26-13 in the fourth quarter. However, a late touchdown by the Broncos had them sweating a little bit at the end, but they got the job done in the end and walked away with a home win. QB Geno Smith wasn’t overly impressive, passing for just 171 yards with a touchdown and a pick. Their strength mostly came on the back of RB Kenneth Walker lll, who ran for 103 yards and a score on the ground. They played sound defense and forced three Denver turnovers, which is really what won them the game in the end.
The model actually thinks the Patriots should be favored in this game at home by 1.5-points, so getting an entire field goal makes this an easy 5-star bet for it.
Falcons at Eagles Over 47
The Atlanta Falcons laid an egg last weekend at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, losing 18-10 in a very low-scoring affair. The defense actually played very well and didn’t allow Pittsburgh to score a single offensive touchdown in the game, and every one of the Steelers’ points came from a field goal. Most of the time, that wins you football games, but the Falcons offense was a disaster all game. New signal-caller Kirk Cousins looked like a guy that hadn’t played football in a year, passing for just 155 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. It was quite an ugly performance.
Philadelphia notched a win over the Green Bay Packers in Brazil in the second NFL game of the year last Friday night. They had the exact opposite happen for them, as their offense looked fantastic for a majority of the game, while their defense was getting carved up by Jordan Love on some deep balls. We all know how talented this Eagles offense is and the weapons they have, with QB Jalen Hurts and new RB Saquan Barkley dominating in their first game. However, that defense looked really leaky and gave up a lot of big plays.
The model has this total at 53.5 points, so we are getting nearly a full touchdown of value here at most sportsbooks, where the total is sitting at 47. This is a 5-star model play.
49ers -5.5 at Vikings
San Francisco started their season off with a big home win on Monday Night Football over Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. The final score was 32-19, but it really wasn’t even that close, with a late garbage time TD scored by the Jets backup QB Tyrod Taylor. They dominated in virtually every aspect of the game, as we are used to seeing from this 49ers team by now, and they looked every bit the part of defending NFC Champions. RB Jordan Mason, who was starting for the injured Christian McCaffery, ran all over New York for 147 yards and a touchdown.
Minnesota also started their season off with a bang, crushing the New York Giants 28-6 on the road, which made it even more impressive. The offense, run by former top-3 pick Sam Darnold at QB, was very effective most of the game. Darnold passed for 208 yards and two touchdowns, as well as throwing one pick. However, it was the defense that was what really won them the game. They held the Giants to just 6 points, and picked off QB Daniel Jones twice, including his now infamous pick-six.
The model has the 49ers favored by 8.5 points, so getting under a touchdown makes this a 4-star play on the spread.
Bet the NFL at BetMGM now! CLICK HERE, sign up for a new BetMGM account, make your first deposit and redeem up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets!