In what is the biggest projected blowout of Week 1 in the NFL, the Cincinnati Bengals will take on the New England Patriots. Right now, Cincinnati is a -8.5 favorite at most places in the market, with a projected total sitting around 41.5. That basically tells you that the books don’t think the Patriots are going to be scoring very much in this game.
We know the kind of offensive weapons that the Bengals possess. QB Joe Burrow is coming off an injury, but when healthy, he is one of the best signal-callers in the NFL and is capable of lighting up the scoreboard every game. He will likely have top WR Ja’Marr Chase, who was questionable because of contract dispute issues, so the offense will be ready to roll.
Most of the questions will be aimed at the New England offense, which will be led by perennial backup QB Jacoby Brissett, who will have very few offensive weapons around him. The team drafted Drake Maye out of North Carolina in the first round, but head coach Jerod Mayo has opted to start Brissett. We have seen how much this offense has struggled over the last couple of years, and really since Tom Brady packed up and left.
The BetQL model thinks that the total has dropped too far at this point, and it will be playing back on the over at 41.5. The model projects the total at 47 points, which is a 6-point difference from the current total. Obviously, when the model has this game as nearly a touchdown higher than the current number, it is going to be a 5-star play, which is what we have here.
The total opened at 43 points, and has since dropped to 41.5 at most books. It did get as low as 40.5 at DraftKings, before moving back up to where it is now. Also at DraftKings, the early action is coming in widely on the under, with 67% of the tickets and a whopping 88% of the money. It is likely the book will want some points to be scored here.
This feels like a good game to tease when it comes to the spread. At -8.5, you can get the Bengals at -2.5 if you tease it down and combine it with another spread. I would recommend Panthers +4, which you can get to +10. I do not see the Saints winning by double-digits against almost anyone, and I am higher on the Panthers than a lot of people.
As for the total, it is starting to get to the point where you might consider the over. Clearly, when it reached 40.5, there was some pushback that brought it up to 41.5 again. One thing is for sure, and that is the model loves the over.
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