One game that almost nobody will be talking about during the NFL’s opening weekend will be the Minnesota Vikings taking on the New York Giants. To be totally and brutally honest, this is a matchup between two teams that are projected to be bottom-feeders in 2024, so the only people watching this game will be the fans of the two teams.
Many times, however, these are the games where you can find the biggest advantages at the books. While it is still an NFL game, and thus lines will be super sharp and tight, more focus is still likely to be on the primetime matchups. The handle will probably be far less on a game like this, reducing liability for the book.
The BetQL model sees a very clear advantage in this game. Why is Sam Darnold a road favorite? Does he really deserve to be, even against the lowly Giants? The model doesn't think so, projecting New York +1.5 as a 5-star play this weekend.
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The model has the Giants favored 2.5 points, which is a -4 point difference from the current line. The model doesn’t see Darnold opening the season with a win on the road, and simply doesn’t trust him to cover as a road favorite. The model lists a final projected score of 22 to 19.5 on average in favor of New York (when rounding to the nearest 0.5).
While Daniel Jones is certainly not an ideal QB to be backing on any given day of the week, he will be at home, where hopefully he can avoid the boo birds this weekend with a win over a very questionable Vikings defense.
The Giants actually opened as -1 favorites in the market, but that has since moved to +1.5 after taking quite a bit of public money on the Vikings. At BetMGM, 70% of tickets in this game are on Minnesota to cover. This really isn’t shocking, as the public has a very low opinion of Jones and New York.
The favorite is likely to take money on Sunday, and the book is likely going to need the Giants as well.