As the college football season heats up heading into Week 4, Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is emerging as a key player in the Heisman Trophy race. After opening at +1100 odds to win the prestigious award at BetMGM, his odds have already shortened to +800 following the Volunteers' 3-0 start. However, while Iamaleava’s early-season performance has garnered attention, a challenging schedule ahead may make him a risky bet moving forward.
Iamaleava currently leads BetMGM’s Heisman betting markets in several categories, with 12.2% of the total tickets placed on him and 11.6% of the handle, making him the sportsbook’s biggest liability. With an impressive start to the season, including wins over Chattanooga, NC State, and Kent State, he’s drawn the attention of bettors looking for a Heisman value pick.
Through three games, Iamaleava has posted strong numbers, completing 71.6% of his passes (48-of-67) for 698 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He’s also shown his versatility as a dual-threat quarterback, adding 102 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. The early injury to Texas’ Quinn Ewers has further opened the Heisman race, boosting Iamaleava’s chances.
Despite his early success, Iamaleava faces a gauntlet of tough opponents as the season progresses. Tennessee's schedule includes road matchups at No. 15 Oklahoma and Arkansas, as well as home games against Florida, No. 4 Alabama, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. The Volunteers will also travel to No. 2 Georgia for what could be a season-defining showdown. Navigating this slate of elite competition will be a monumental task for both Iamaleava and Tennessee, making his current Heisman odds a bit risky, especially if UT loses both of those tests.
While Iamaleava’s early numbers are impressive, bettors may want to think twice before locking in their Heisman bets on the Tennessee signal-caller. The strength of his upcoming schedule, with games against two of the nation’s top teams in Alabama and Georgia, could hinder his Heisman campaign. A couple of losses or subpar performances or losses could quickly diminish his candidacy.
Instead, bettors looking for value might consider pivoting to other players with more favorable schedules. One intriguing alternative is Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty (+2000, BetMGM), who has been a breakout performer on an historic pace this season. Jeanty offers strong value in the Heisman market without the same level of schedule-induced risk that Iamaleava faces.
While Nico Iamaleava’s early-season stats and Tennessee’s 3-0 start have generated Heisman buzz, bettors should be cautious given the difficult road ahead for the Volunteers. With matchups against Alabama, Georgia, and several other SEC powers, fading Iamaleava could be the smarter play. Alternatives like Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty offer more favorable value in the race for college football’s most coveted individual award.
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