Dodgers Up 1-0 in NLCS: Best Bets & Player Props
Instead of throwing struggling RHP Walker Buehler back out into the fire, the Los Angeles Dodgers seem to be going with a bullpen game tonight against the New York Mets. Buehler was scheduled to start this game, but with how incredibly efficient Jack Flaherty was yesterday, most of their bullpen got a rest day. This will allow them to save Buehler for later in the series, when they hope to be up multiple games.
To say Buehler has looked like an entirely different pitcher from just two years ago is an understatement. He has struggled immensely since returning from Tommy John surgery, with his velocity down a tick and his command not being nearly as effective as it was in 2022. In 75.1 innings this season, he generated a 4.68 xERA and 4.49 xFIP, and was a below-average arm at best. Him not pitching is actually a slight positive for Los Angeles.
On the other side, Sean Manaea has been on fire since the All-Star break, and has looked like the best pitcher in the Mets rotation. In his two playoff starts spanning 12.0 innings, he’s allowed nine hits, three runs, two walks, and 10 strikeouts. He finished with a 3.75 xERA and 4.04 xFIP in the regular season, which was substantially better than his 4.29 xERA in the first half, so he managed to find something that helped him pitch more effectively.
Dodgers hitters have hit him well over his career, as they own a .859 OPS in 150+ plate appearances against him. Still, this version of Manaea is seemingly much better than what he was the last time he faced them in April. He’ll need to be efficient here since New York used Reed Garrett, Jose Butto, David Peterson, and Danny Young in yesterday’s 9-0 blowout loss after starter Kodai Senga struggled. Manaea also won’t have a long leash if he does struggle with them down 1-0 in the series.
In terms of the bullpens, the Mets have the overall advantage, ranking 7th in xFIP vs. 19th for the Dodgers. I am not a huge fan of L.A.’s pen, but interchanging pitchers every few innings in a bullpen game can be effective if the manager does it right.
In terms of actual bets, I think there is some value in taking the Mets at +125 in this game behind Manaea. I also don’t see this being a very high-scoring affair like last night, which the Dodgers cashed the over by themselves. With Manaea on the hill and the Dodgers switching arms every few innings, scoring should be lower.
However, I also think Manaea under 5.5 strikeouts is a good prop to target. Los Angeles strikes out at one of the lowest rates in baseball against lefties, and Manaea generated just a 21.6% K% on the road. I think this number is a tad too high.
Best Bets: Mets ML (+125), Under 8.5 (-114), Manaea Under 5.5 Ks (-140)
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