As the New England Patriots prepare to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 5, one key betting angle stands out: the first-half trends for both teams. The Patriots are favored by a small margin in the first half, with the spread set at -0.5, and for good reason. The Dolphins have been consistently outscored in the first half of all four games this season, struggling without their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Miami’s inability to score early is a major factor, as they’ve failed to cover the first-half spread in every game so far, leaving them as one of only two teams to go 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in the first half this season. Not only that, but they’ve trailed by at least a touchdown at the intermission in all four games. Their offense has been especially flat with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley at the helm, managing just 96 passing yards in last week’s 31-12 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett has quietly built a reputation as one of the most reliable first-half performers in the NFL. His career record of 32-20 ATS in the first half ranks him among the most profitable quarterbacks in recent history. Per The Action Network, out of 260 QB’s in the last 20 years, he’s the 5th-most profitable QB 1H ATS behind only Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson, Peyton Manning and Jared Goff!
Known for his game management skills, Brissett isn’t posting big passing numbers this season, but his ability to avoid mistakes and let New England’s defense and running game control the tempo makes him a solid bet to cover the first-half spread. His efficiency should help keep the Patriots in games early, even if he does the bare minimum.
In the absence of Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense has been lackluster. Under head coach Mike McDaniel, Miami has scored fewer than 21 points in six of the seven games without Tua, and Huntley’s performance last week did little to inspire confidence. With the Dolphins unable to generate much offensive momentum, especially early in games, the Patriots’ first-half edge becomes even more pronounced. Despite the Patriots' own 1-3 ATS first-half record this season, their solid presumed ground and pound game plan and Brissett's stability under center offer a significant advantage against a Miami team that simply can’t seem to get things going in the first two quarters. The combination of Miami’s offensive woes and Brissett’s impressive first-half track record makes this betting angle one worth paying close attention to.
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