One of the bigger stories in the NFL for the first couple weeks of the season was how incredible the New Orleans Saints offense looked. No one really expected the Saints to be any good this season, and in fact, they were -200 to miss the playoffs before the season started. They opened their season with a huge 47-10 blowout win over the Carolina Panthers, which wasn’t incredibly impressive since we all knew that the Panthers weren’t that good. Then they put up 44 points against the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Week 2, dominating them with a 44-19 victory. Heads started to turn after that.
However, the team seems to have come down to Earth over the last two weeks. They lost 15-12 in Week 3 to the Philadelphia Eagles with their offense looking like a shell of what it did the first couple of weeks. Then in Week 4, they dropped their second straight contest, this time in a 26-24 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons on the road. So even though they started as the talk of the town, they find themselves back at .500, and with a date with the Kansas City Chiefs this coming weekend.
Over at BetMGM, the Saints odds to miss the playoffs have moved dramatically. I already mentioned they started at -200, but just last week, they were a robust +145 to miss the playoffs. Now, you can get them at -115 to not make the postseason, a huge shift in odds. The Chiefs are a -5.5 favorite over them this weekend, so I think the presumption of the Saints losing is also baked in this number at least a small bit.
I for one never believed the hype for New Orleans, but I did play the market quite well on them. Whenever the perception of a team is at a low point, that is when it is time to buy. It is just like the stock market, you need to know when to invest. When the stock is high, it is time to sell. Right now, I feel as though the general public perception of New Orleans has fallen over the last few weeks with those losses. Now could be a good time to buy back into them at this fairly large number of +5.5 they are getting against a very overrated Chiefs team.
Not only that, but the number is almost always inflated because of the “Chiefs Tax” as I like to call it. There is no team in the NFL that is as public as Kansas City. They have won back-to-back Super Bowls, have who is considered the best QB in the league in Patrick Mahomes, and have an international pop sensation rooting for them at games.
It is always tough to make a call on future bets like this, as the season is always a roller coaster. However, the public doesn’t seem to have a problem betting New Orleans to miss the playoffs. A whopping 52 percent of tickets and 81 percent of the handle is on that side, so the believers are simply not there. I probably wouldn’t bet this at all as it stands right now, but I’m sure the books would be happy if they managed to get in.
Their odds will increase if they manage to go in and defeat the Chiefs in Arrowhead, which I think might happen.
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