Monday Night Football’s Week 3 doubleheader wraps up with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Washington Commanders. The Bengals, sitting as 7.5-point favorites, are looking to bounce back after a tough start to the season. Joe Burrow, who’s playing through the longest losing streak of his career, faces the NFL’s worst pass defense, giving him a prime opportunity for a big game. Our Same-Game Parlay (SGP) of Bengals -7.5 and Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+140, BetMGM) combines two strong trends to provide a valuable bet for this matchup.
Bengals -7.5 & Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TD (+140, BetMGM)
Joe Burrow has been a reliable bet following a straight-up (SU) loss. He’s 15-6-1 against the spread (ATS) after an SU loss throughout his career. After a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, Burrow and the Bengals covered the spread in Week 2 against the Chiefs, continuing this trend. With last week’s tight loss to Kansas City, the trend is live again heading into this matchup with Washington.
A major factor working in Burrow’s favor is that he thrives when facing teams coming off ATS covers, like the Commanders. In his career, Burrow is a dominant 19-4-1 ATS against teams that covered the spread in their previous game, and Washington’s Week 2 win and cover against the Giants put them in that category.
Burrow will also be getting a significant boost to his offense this week. Star wide receiver Tee Higgins, who missed the previous game, will return alongside Ja’Marr Chase, giving Burrow his full arsenal of weapons. The Commanders’ pass defense has been dreadful, allowing six passing touchdowns in two games—the most in the NFL. Burrow threw two touchdowns last week against the Chiefs and should find plenty of opportunities to pick apart Washington’s secondary, making the over 1.5 passing TDs prop a solid play as an SGP leg.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are in a prime position to secure a win and cover the spread on Monday Night Football. With key trends favoring Burrow after a loss and against teams coming off ATS covers, pairing Bengals -7.5 with Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs at +140 odds provides excellent value. Expect Burrow to take full advantage of the Commanders' weak pass defense and deliver a big night.
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