The New England Patriots will make the short trip to the Big Apple as they face the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. New York is favored by 6.5 points with a low total of 38.5. Both teams sit at 1-1 on the season, with the Patriots beating Cincinnati before losing to Seattle, and the Jets losing to the 49ers before beating the Titans.
I have two plays in this game: one on the total and a player prop that I love.
Patriots at Jets: Under 38.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Let’s start with the under 38.5 at BetMGM. Both teams are expected to lean heavily on the run and trust their defenses to get the job done. The Jets' defense hasn’t quite met the high preseason expectations, and losing DE Jermaine Johnson to an Achilles injury is a big blow, especially with Haason Reddick still holding out. However, there’s still plenty of talent in the secondary, and New England’s offense isn’t exactly an explosive threat.
Through the first two games of the season, the Patriots rank fifth in run frequency, which isn’t surprising considering their lack of talent on the outside. Their run game is ranked 7th by PFF, while their receiving corps ranks 23rd.
Aaron Rodgers has had a slow start to the year, and with New York playing its third game in 10 days, I suspect the 40-year-old quarterback, coming off an Achilles injury, might struggle behind an offensive line that is good but likely a bit tired and banged up.
Like New England, the Jets have also relied heavily on the run game, not only with Breece Hall but also rookie Braelon Allen, who contributed significantly last week. Hall has 30 carries for 116 yards on the season, while Allen added 41 yards on the ground, along with a rushing and receiving touchdown last weekend.
That said, the Patriots' defense has performed better than expected. They've done a good job generating pressure, with eight sacks and 22 quarterback hurries so far. They’re also holding opponents to just 58.0 rushing yards per game this season.
All in all, I don’t see either team generating enough explosive plays to turn this into a back-and-forth affair. Plus, with Robert Saleh as head coach, the Jets are 6-3-1 in games where they’re favored, supporting the argument for the under at 38.5.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, BetMGM)
Knowing the Patriots are going to want to run the ball, Rhamondre Stevenson should be featured heavily again, which is why I like him to go over 15.5 rushing attempts on Thursday night.
I mentioned that New England is fifth in rushing frequency, with 57.69% of their plays staying on the ground. Stevenson has had at least 20 carries in both games this season, totaling 201 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He boasts the 5th-best run grade and the 7th-best offensive grade according to PFF, and his 46 total carries are the 3rd-most among all running backs this season.
New York’s defense gave up 147 yards on 28 carries to San Francisco’s Jordan Mason in Week 1 and allowed Tony Pollard to rush 17 times for 62 yards in Week 2. The Jets already have the 5th-worst run defense according to PFF, and I don’t expect that to improve this week with Johnson out, leading to a heavy workload for Stevenson.
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