The first game of this week's Monday Night Football doubleheader features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Bills are favored by 5.5 points, with an over/under set at 45.5. In a matchup with playoff implications, both teams will be looking to make a statement, and we’ve got some player props worth watching. Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. continues to impress, making his over 41.5 receiving yards prop one of the most intriguing plays of the night. Meanwhile, Josh Allen’s ability to run the ball for the Bills could be key in a game expected to stay close.
Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. Over 41.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-125, Caesars)
Thomas might be the most underrated rookie in the entire NFL. To highlight that fact, he ranks 1st among all NFL players in Route Win Rate (92.9%), as we highlighted in a feature article this week. The 6’3, 209-pounder also runs a 4.33 40-yard dash and ranks 9th in Target Separation, which ranks 9th in the NFL among all players, and when targeting him, Trevor Lawrence has had a 155.2 QB Rating Per Target, 3rd-highest in the league. After grabbing four of four targets for 47 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Dolphins, he caught two of four targets for 94 yards against the Browns last week. This is my favorite player prop in this game by a mile.
Bills QB Josh Allen Over 6.5 Rush Attempts vs. Jaguars (-114, FanDuel)
In Week 1, Allen showed off his multidimensionality and took nine carries for 39 yards and two touchdowns in a home victory over the Cardinals, but last week, he wasn’t required to do much as a runner of the football, logging just two carries for two yards in a 31-10 lopsided win against the Dolphins. Allen has gone over this mark in four consecutive home games dating back to last season and even though the Bills are home favorites (-5.5), I expect this contest to stay close throughout and require Allen to run. Deshaun Watson took five carries for 20 yards and a touchdown against this Jacksonville defense last week.
Bills RB James Cook Over 61.5 Rushing Yards vs. Jaguars (-113, FanDuel)
Cook has been cooking this season, logging 71 rushing yards and 78 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2 against the Cardinals and Dolphins. With Stefon Diggs gone, Buffalo has been spreading the ball around and operating as an efficient offense and that unpredictability should continue to benefit Cook, who is looked into the RB1 role. Last week against this Jaguars run defense, Browns running backs Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman combined for 106 rushing yards on 21 carries, so I’m not at all worried about Cook’s floor in this one. Coming off his AFC Offensive Player of the Week honor, he should be running with a ton of confidence.
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