Plenty of NBA future betting markets are wide open for the 2024-25 season, but Defensive Player of the year is not one of them. San Antonio Spurs Phenom Victor Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite (-900 at BetMGM) and there have been no signs that any of the other contenders have a chance to gain ground on the Frenchman. Let’s get into why bettors shouldn’t waste money on other candidates.
DPOY has long been considered a big man’s award that prioritizes rim protection. Two guards have won it in the last 30 years, but the vast majority of recipients have excelled as shot blockers. Wembanyama finished second in DPOY voting to four-time winner and fellow countryman Rudy Gobert last season after leading the league with 254 total blocks in 71 games. It was difficult for voters to give a rookie spearheading the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense the hardware in a season where his team was far from the playoff hunt. He was a marvel to watch, but Gobert was a force for the NBA’s top-ranked scoring defense. Wembanyama has stepped his game up since then.
Wembanyama’s ridiculous average of 3.9 blocks per contest has helped him amass 150 swats in 38 games, so he’s well on his way to surpassing his rookie record. Gobert has a better defense, but he appears to have lost his appeal due to voter fatigue and his uninspiring play on offense. Wembanyama adds a rare kind of defensive flare in the way that he’s able to impact opposing teams from outside the painted area with his mobility. Switching onto perimeter players, swallowing up passing lanes, and creating offense from defense puts him into a class of his own. San Antonio’s scoring defense is now ranked 19th and that improvement has contributed more wins. A bottom-bottom-of-the-barrel team can’t possibly have the league's best defender in the eyes of modern voters.
Evan Mobley (+1800) and 2023 DPOY winner Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1800) have the second and third best odds in the race, but neither offers Wembanyama’s flash. Luguentz Dort (+3500) ranks fourth as a key cog in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s top-ranked scoring defense, but you could argue that steals leader Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+5000) is even more impactful. Someone will have to pull off an astonishing feat that hasn’t been accomplished in decades to catch Wemby. None of the aforementioned players are close to doing that.
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