Welcome to Week 2 of NFL player prop picks! In Week 1, I went 6-4, netting a profit of +1.15 units. Successful picks included Cardinals RB James Conner surpassing 64.5 rushing and receiving yards, Falcons RB Bijan Robinson going over 63.5 rushing yards, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley exceeding 15.5 receiving yards, and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs with over 19.5 receiving yards. Ravens WR Zay Flowers also hit over 4.5 receptions, and Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy had a reception over 21.5 yards. Unsuccessful bets were on Giants QB Daniel Jones, Raiders RB Zamir White, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, and a second bet on Zay Flowers' receiving yards. Jones was simply awful, White had 13 carries (under the 14.5 mark), Kelce delivered a dud on opening night and Flowers was held in check from a yardage perspective.
With all of that being said, Week 2 is upon us and I’m excited for it. Below, you’ll see my week-by-week results with links back to these articles for transparency, along with my season record.
Week 1: 6-4 (+1.15 units)
Season: 6-4 (+1.15 units)
Let’s get into this week’s picks.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions (-140) & Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel) & 10+ Alt Receptions (+172, FanDuel) & 11+ Alt Receptions (+265, FanDuel) & 12+ Alt Receptions (+390, FanDuel) & 13+ Alt Receptions (+580, FanDuel) & 14+ Alt Receptions (+800, FanDuel) vs. Cardinals
With Puka Nacua out in Week 2, Kupp is going to see astronomical usage once again and if there’s any team and quarterback that know how to scheme to get him the football, it’s the Rams and Matthew Stafford. Kupp was in motion at the snap on 30 plays in Week 1, six more times than any other player over the last seven NFL seasons. He ran 436 yards on pre-snap motion yet played all 74 offensive plays. As a result, he caught eight passes for 75 yards and a TD on those specific plays. The Cardinals happened to be the worst team in the entire NFL defending any kind of motion or shift before the snap last season, allowing a league high 0.13 EPA per dropback.
Kupp was the first read in Stafford’s progression on all 21 of his targets in Week 1 and he finished with 14 catches for 110 yards and that TD along with two carries for 10 yards. He’s going to be heavily utilized once again and I’m not at all worried about the attention that Arizona’s defense is going to give him. As proven last week and over the years, LA is going to get Kupp the ball if they want to (and they will need to). I love all the props above and will ladder his reception totals.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-114, BetRivers) & Anytime TD (+115, DraftKings) & 2+ TD’s (+750, FanDuel) at Packers
As one of the few bellcow backs in the NFL, Taylor played 96% of offensive snaps last week and gets a matchup against a Packers defense that allowed Saquon Barkley to go off in Week 1. Barkley took 24 carries for 109 yards and two touchdowns and took two receptions for 23 yards and another score. Not only that, but Malik Willis is slated to start for the Packers with Jordan Love out, so I’d assume that the Colts are going to control possession and get the ball with solid field possession if Willis hasn’t made huge strides.
Most books are giving Taylor a rushing attempt prop right around 18 and if he receives that volume, he should absolutely eat in this matchup. Coming off of a 16-carry, 48-yard, one-touchdown outing last week against the Texans, there’s obvious upside for Taylor this week, especially considering how dominant Indy’s offensive line is and the advantage that they’ll have in the trenches. I’ll happily get on his two-touchdown prop as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, BetMGM) & Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-119, Caesars) & Anytime TD (+115, Caesars/DraftKings/FanDuel) & 2+ TD’s (+750, FanDuel/DraftKings) vs. Seahawks
If Week 1 was any indication, the Patriots are going to play old school football this season under new head coach Jerod Mayo. Stevenson took 25 carries for 120 yards with a touchdown and caught three passes for six yards as well. Not only that, but he posted 12 missed tackles (no other RB had more than five) last week and 109 of his 120 yards came after contact. Translation: he was running hard and angry.
After stifling Cincinnati’s offense in Week 1, I expect New England’s defense to keep things close and low-scoring once again in Week 2 against the Seahawks. Mayo hinted that a similar gameplan would be employed this week and that the Pats would be a run-first team. Seattle has struggled against the run since the start of last season and even though they limited Broncos running backs in Week 1, I’m still very high on Stevenson’s rushing attempts, rushing yards and his ability to find paydirt.
Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards vs. Commanders (-113, FanDuel)
In Week 1, Robinson drew 12 targets and racked up six receptions for 44 yards. Per Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, he might even have a better matchup in Week 2 against the Commanders, who allowed 139 receiving yards to the slot in Week 1 against the Buccaneers. Since the start of the 2023 season, no CB has allowed more yards to the slot than Washington CB Benjamin St. Juste.
49ers RB Jordan Mason Over 73.5 Rushing Yards at Vikings (-113, FanDuel)
In Week 1, Mason took the NFL by storm, rushing 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. Since he only caught one pass on one target, I want to only target his rushing prop, which is too low for his new role with Christian McCaffrey on the IR. I’m not going to overthink this one.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Over 98.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at Eagles (-113, FanDuel)
In Week 1, Robinson took 18 carries for 68 yards and caught five passes on five targets for 43 additional yards in a loss to the Steelers. Most importantly, though, he saw 45 of 50 snaps (90%), took 18 of 22 backfield carries (82%), got every backfield target and all of the red zone snaps. We seemingly don’t have to worry about Tyler Allgeier vulturing Robinson’s workload like we did last season with Arthur Smith running the show and if he’s going to get bellcow usage, Robinson will be in play every single week. The Eagles allowed 163 rushing yards to the Packers in their home opener and starting RB Josh Jacobs took 16 carries for 84 rushing yards and caught two passes for 20 yards as well.
Cardinals RB James Conner Anytime TD vs. Rams (-110, BetMGM)
The Rams allowed two touchdowns to Lions running backs in their season opener and Conner enters this matchup as the true workhorse in Arizona’s backfield. He took 16 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown and caught three of four targets for 33 yards against the Bills in Week 1. Most importantly for this prop, Conner saw 100% of the running back opportunities within the 10 yard line and continued the elite production that he flashed at the end of last season.
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Lions (-114, FanDuel)
Godwin led the Buccaneers with eight targets in Week 1 (55% of snaps in the slot) and the Lions got torched from the slot last week, allowing 11 catches on 14 targets from the slot against Cooper Kupp and the Rams. This should be a close, high-scoring game and Godwin should be very active throughout.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries in their secondary and we know that we’re going to get a pass-funnel approach from Todd Bowles’ defense (TB is going to sell out and try to stop the run). That should lead to some extra opportunities for Detroit’s passing game, especially from St. Brown, who had a dud in Week 1, but grades out as one of the best options this week. Not only has he thrived against the blitz, but he is the NFL’s most efficient and productive player against Cover 4 defense, which Tampa Bay was in the 7th-most amount of times in Week 1, per CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs.
Chiefs RB Isaiah Pacheco Anytime TD vs. Bengals (-130, FanDuel)
After getting gashed by Rhamondre Stevenson last week, I expect the Chiefs to attack the Bengals on the ground using Pacheco. He had 15 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown with two catches on three targets for 33 yards in a very tough matchup against the Ravens last week, so this should be an easier matchup.
COMPLETED GAMES
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions vs. Bills (-139, Caesars)
Bills QB Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown vs. Dolphins (-115, DraftKings)