The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most successful regular season teams in the NFL over the last three years, continually making the playoffs and giving themselves a chance to win a championship.
Of course, that hasn’t come yet, and the window for the Bills seems to be getting smaller and smaller as the years go on. They still have superstar QB Josh Allen under center, and anytime you have a great signal-caller, you have a chance. One thing is for sure, and that is the fact that they have been superb at covering the number early.
Over their last 10 games played in the month of September, the Bills are a glistening 9-1 ATS, one of the best teams in the NFL at covering the spread early in the year. Their only ATS loss in that span was last season’s opener against the Jets, where they lost outright as a -2.5 favorite. They recovered after that, winning and covering in their last two September games in 2023.
Now, they are sitting at -6 on BetMGM to open their 2024 season, this time at home against the Arizona Cardinals. I always like to look at where the money and tickets are going to get a more clear picture of where this game is headed. The Bills are getting 52% of tickets ATS, but just 39% of the handle. On the moneyline, they are getting 48% of the bets and 46% of the handle at the time of this writing.
This means the Cardinals are getting more money put on them ATS and ML overall, so it seems the sportsbooks might need Buffalo here to cover this spread and win the game. The line has moved from -7 to -6 as this money has come in. However, a lot can change very quickly, and more Bills money will likely come in closer to kickoff.
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