Alvin Kamara has been one of the most consistent producers in the NFL since entering the league. With rushing totals of 728, 883, 797, 932, 898, 897, and 694 yards in seasons where he's played between 13 and 16 games, his track record is hard to ignore. Despite a dip in production last year, in part due to his three-game suspension to start the year, Kamara’s rushing yardage prop of 650.5 yards at BetMGM seems criminally low for a player of his caliber.
The New Orleans Saints didn’t add any significant competition to their backfield in the offseason. Kendre Miller (who is on the IR) and Jamaal Williams, who both posted lower yards-per-carry marks than Kamara last season, are his primary competitors for touches in 2024. Even with Kamara’s 3.8 yards per carry, the second-lowest of his career, he still has a clear path to meaningful volume on the ground.
The Saints’ new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, brings a run-first mentality that should benefit Kamara. Kubiak, who helped Christian McCaffrey excel in San Francisco, is expected to build the Saints' offense around a strong running game. Kamara has praised the new system, and with Kubiak’s history of maximizing running back production (formerly with Dalvin Cook in Minnesota), the veteran back is primed for a big season.
Kamara has proven to be durable, showing no significant signs of decline or injury risk. His clean medical history and consistent production suggest that he can easily surpass this modest yardage prop, especially if the Saints’ offensive line improves its run-blocking.
With no significant threats to his workload and a renewed focus on the running game, Alvin Kamara is poised for a strong season. The 650.5-yard mark is a prop that bettors should seriously consider taking advantage of, as Kamara has exceeded this total in each of his seven NFL seasons and the Saints rebuilt their offensive line with three new starters.
This is my favorite season-long NFL player prop future on the board.
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