Anyone who has been gambling on the NFL this season knows that this has been the year of the underdog so far, with the biggest favorites in the first three weeks of the season all losing their games outright. It has been an incredible start for the bettors who love to fade the public masses, such as myself, as we have been cashing in at what I would say is an unsustainable rate so far.
These large underdogs just keep printing cash. Underdogs of 6+ points are a fantastic 14-2-1 ATS (87.5 percent cover rate) this season so far. I personally have not gotten out to this good of a start in the NFL ever, and I have been wagering since it became legal in 2020. That being said, I don’t think this is going to continue throughout the entire season, and you have to be careful picking your spots each week.
There are two underdogs of 6+ points this coming weekend, the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals. Could they both be in play this weekend as potential upsets over the two teams they are facing? My first thought is no, as we saw the first huge favorite last week finally win and cover. It is possible that this streak of these teams covering is coming to an end, but as always, looking at the betting splits can tell you a lot.
The Cardinals are +7.5 against the 49ers this weekend, but San Francisco isn’t getting the love like they used to with the injuries they have sustained so far this season. In fact, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing, they are getting less than 50 percent of spread bets in this game, making the Cardinals a public dog. You almost never want to back public underdogs, as while they sometimes win, the vast majority of them do not. Vegas wouldn’t keep building casinos if plus money dogs with most of the cash and tickets on them won every week.
The Giants are a different story. Seattle, despite their loss to the Detroit Lions, looked pretty impressive in that game on offense. Meanwhile, the Giants have QB Daniel Jones and didn’t score a touchdown in their last game. New York is getting less than 50 percent of wagers here, which makes me believe in them more as a live underdog. When the public loves a favorite, the underdog generally does better than expected.
The Giants in particular are interesting here. When the Giants are off a SU loss under Brian Daboll, they are 14-6 ATS in their next game, including 11-5 ATS when listed as an underdog. They have a great history in this spot since they lost outright to the Dallas Cowboys last week.
When it comes to trends and narratives, you can’t just blindly bet into it. You have to pick your spots carefully, and always look at the data before making a wager to keep yourself as informed as possible before the game starts.
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