KAT to Knicks, Randle & DiVincenzo to Wolves
Major NBA trades very rarely happen in September with the new season right around the corner, but a major deal involving the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves took place and sent shockwaves across the league community and betting markets alike.
On Friday September 27, the Knicks acquired Karl-Anthony Towns from the Timberwolves for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenco and a protected first-round pick (via Detroit).
Per DraftKings, the Knicks got a regular-season win total boost of three games from 51.5 to 54.5 while the Wolves’ 52.5 total didn’t move. New York now has the third-best odds to win the NBA Finals behind the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder.
After going 56-26 last season, the Timberwolves beat the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets and advanced to the Western Conference Finals, where they lost to the Dallas Mavericks in five games. The Knicks finished 50-32 and lost to the Indiana Pacers in seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals after beating the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round. Despite that success, both teams felt as though they had to make a major move to get over the hump.
Towns averaged 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 32.7 minutes across 62 regular season games and shot 41.6% from three-point range as one of the top-shooting big men in the Association. He then posted 19.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 32.6 minutes across 19 playoff games, but was notably benched in favor of Naz Reid down the stretch of crucial games. Perhaps the organization decided that the nine-year vet was no longer a cornerstone of the franchise following that experience.
Randle averaged 24.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 35.4 minutes across 46 regular season games for the Knicks before going down with a season-ending injury. DiVincenzo had a breakout year, averaging 15.5 points on 40.1% three-point shooting, and ranked third in the entire NBA in three-pointers made (283). He followed that up with 17.8 points per game on 42.5% three-point shooting in 13 playoff games. Rather than running it back with the recreation of Villanova stars plus Randle, the Knicks decided to part ways and bring in KAT.
Trade Impact on Knicks
Here’s my new projected Knicks starting lineup: PG Jalen Brunson, SG Mikal Bridges, SF OG Anunoby, PF Karl-Anthony Towns, C Mitchell Robinson. And here’s the projected bench/reserves: SF Josh Hart, C Precious Achiuwa, SG Miles McBride, (two-way), PG Cam Payne, C Jericho Sims, PG Tyler Kolek, SF Pacome Dadiet, SF Kevin McCullar Jr. (two-way), SF Jacob Toppin (two-way), C Ariel Hukporti (two-way), SG Landry Shamet/PF Marcus Morris/SF Chuma Okeke (Camp Invites). I expect Tom Thibodeau to trot out an eight-man rotation with Hart, Achiuwa and McBride primarily getting minutes off the pine.
Per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, this deal brings them to $185.35M in total salary, $3.6M below the second apron. Per Spotrac, Towns will make $49,205,800 this season, $53,142,264 in 2025-2026, $57,078,728 in 2026-2027 and has a player option for 2027-2028 for his $61,015,192 salary before hitting unrestricted free agency heading into 2028-2029 as a 33 year old. Towns, Brunson, Anunoby, Bridges, Hart and Robinson are now under contract for the next two seasons before Bridges and Robinson potentially hit unrestricted free agency.
This move allows New York to finally deal Randle, who has seemingly been on the trade block for years, but losing DiVincenzo at a very team-friendly price will be a hard pill to swallow. I also have a major concern about if KAT will fit into Tom Thibodeau’s gritty, defensive-first philosophy. He played for Thibs in Minnesota before the head coach was fired after a year and a half together.
Overall, there’s no way I’d recommend betting the Knicks to win the East (+275, BetMGM) or the NBA Championship (+700, BetMGM). Assuming that Hart comes off the bench, I’d consider sprinkling some on him to win 6th Man of the Year (+1400, BetMGM), but I don’t love it. Overall, this feels like a stay-away situation.
Trade Impact on Timberwolves
Here’s my new projected Timberwolves starting lineup: PG Mike Conley, SG Anthony Edwards, SF Jaden McDaniels, PF Julius Randle, C Rudy Gobert. And here’s the projected bench/reserves: PF Naz Reid, SG Donte DiVincenzo, PG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, PG Rob Dillingham, SG Terrence Shannon Jr., SF Joe Ingles, SF Leonard Miller, PF PJ Dozier, PF Josh Minott, C Luka Garza, PG Daishen Nix (two-way), SG Jaylen Clark (two-way), SF Jesse Edwards (two-way). I expect Chris Finch to run a 10-man rotation with Reid, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, Dillingham and Shannon factoring in.
Per Marks, the deal brings Minnesota to $203.5M in total salary, above the luxury tax and both aprons. They’ll likely make some minor moves to deal with that financial situation in the coming days. However, Gobert, Randle and Reid all have player options for the 2025-2026 campaign, so this could be a one-year experiment. Only Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Conley, DiVincenzo, Dillingham, Shannon and Miller are under contract for 2025-2026 and beyond at the moment.
This trade undeniably makes the Timberwolves better since they landed one of the best volume shooters in the NBA (DiVincenzo) and one of the most underrated offensive power forwards in the league (Randle). While it remains to be seen how they’ll fit in rotationally, Minnesota’s depth got even more impressive since I expect DiVincenzo to come off the bench.
More than anything, this deal fully hands the keys to the franchise over to young superstar Anthony Edwards and turns the page on the Towns Era.
Reigning 6th Man of the Year Reid is now unplayable to defend his award with DiVincenzo alongside him with other contributors. I do like Minnesota to win the Northwest Division (+240 to +250 across the industry) and since I think the trade will turn into a net positive for them, I’m also comfortable betting over 52.5 regular season wins.
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