As we head into pivotal Game 3 matchups in the NLDS, the Phillies take on the Mets while the Dodgers face off against the Padres. Both series are tied 1-1, making these games crucial for each team’s championship hopes. With Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea starting for Philadelphia and New York, and Walker Buehler and Michael King squaring off for Los Angeles and San Diego, the focus will be on pitching. Injuries, like Freddie Freeman’s questionable status for the Dodgers, could also tip the scales. Here are the best bets for Tuesday, October 8, with a strong lean toward both games going under the total.
Phillies (-110) at Mets: Series Tied 1-1
We go to Game 3 of the NLDS tied up 1-1 in the series between the Mets and Phillies. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another, which is something you have to account for when capping this game and every game they play each other. Philadelphia is a -110 slight favorite on the road, with the Mets sitting around -103 in the market.
RHP Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies, who will face the Mets for the third time this season and 29th time in his career. You could say he is quite familiar with the guys he will be facing. Nola owns a 3.75 xERA and 3.44 xFIP this season, showing that he is a solid and reliable frontline starter, but he isn’t the totally dominant superstar that he has been in some previous seasons. He had a mixed bag of results in his two games against New York this season, pitching a complete game shutout in May, but allowing six runs in 4 ⅓ innings on Sept. 13.
Countering him will be LHP Sean Manaea for the Mets, who doesn’t have nearly the experience Nola does against his opponent. He did face them three times this season, and tossed two quality starts in those outings, including a seven inning gem on Sept. 21. He owned a 3.75 xERA and 4.04 xFIP in the regular season, but was a far better pitcher in the second half of the season than he was in the first. I view him as a slightly above-average starter, and just a tier below Nola.
Philly will have the offensive advantage in this game, considering they are in their strongest split against a lefty, while New York is in their weaker split against a right-hander. Both teams crushed lefties this season, with a 118 wRC+ each, but both also struggled more against righties with a 105 for the Mets and 104 for Philly.
Overall, both teams have excellent bullpens this season. The Phillies rank 6th in xFIP, while the Mets rank 5th. The Mets have the advantage on defense, ranking higher in both DRS and OAA.
Putting on my weather cap again, winds are supposed to be 10 mph blowing across for this game. Umpire Doug Eddings will be behind the plate, who rates as pitcher-friendly on his profile.
Best Bet: Under 7.5
Dodgers at Padres (-154): Series Tied 1-1
Another tied series as we head to San Diego for this NLDS matchup, the Padres are sizable favorites at home at -154 on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is sitting at +140. This is likely due to Freddie Freeman’s health for the Dodgers, and these prices tell me he won’t be playing tonight. If he does, expect L.A. to gain some ground here.
RHP Walker Buehler is getting the ball for the Dodgers tonight, and he has really struggled since coming back from Tommy John surgery. In 16 starts, he owns a 4.68 xERA and 4.49 xFIP, which rates him as a below-average starter at best. His command has been far worse, which is typical for guys coming off that surgery, but his velocity and overall stuff has also been noticeably worse. It’s sad really, as he was fantastic in 2021 with a 3.08 xERA in his last healthy year.
On the other side, RHP Michael King takes the mound, who was great in his first postseason start against the Braves. He owns a 3.54 xERA and 3.50 xFIP this season, so much like Nola, he is a very solid frontline starter that you can count on to deliver a quality start. He was a much better pitcher in the second half of the season, and seems to have continued with that success if his first start against Atlanta was any indication.
Offensively, the Dodgers would have the edge, but the health of Freeman is critical. He is one of their best and most reliable bats, so taking him out of the lineup makes this a much more even contest. Both L.A. and San Diego were great against righties all season, each owning a top 10 unit in terms of wRC+.
In the bullpen, the Padres have the advantage, but they would have the advantage against anyone left this postseason. They rank 2nd in xFIP and have been an extremely good unit this season. The Dodgers actually have one of the worst left this postseason, ranking just 19th in xFIP.
In terms of the weather, there is nothing here that would lend favor toward an over or under, but we do get Umpire Cory Blaser behind the plate. Like Eddings, he also has historically been very pitcher-friendly in his career calling games.
Best Bet: Under 8
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