Welcome to NFL Week 1! I'm excited to kick off the season with my expert picks and betting insights that will set you up for success from the get-go. Each week, I'll be breaking down key matchups and providing my best bets to help you make informed decisions. Whether it's a moneyline, point spread, or over/under, I've got you covered all season long.
This week, I've identified three standout plays, starting with a Texans moneyline bet that has serious value against a shaky Colts team. We’ll also dive into why the Lions should cover at home against the Rams and why the Jets are poised to surprise the 49ers. Let’s get to it!
Texans ML at Colts (-122, DraftKings)
I’m extremely high on the Texans this year and think they’re priced with criminally-wrong odds (-120ish depending on the book) to win the AFC South Division. In my opinion, they should be around -250, given the offseason upgrades they made, notably getting QB CJ Stroud (who finished his rookie year INT-proof in eight straight games) another weapon in Stefon Diggs. I already view Houston as a Super Bowl contender and think they’re going to show exactly why in their Week 1 matchup against the Colts on the road. Indianapolis will have starting QB Anthony Richardson back and healthy, but he was shaky in the preseason, is mistake prone and injury prone and most importantly, the Colts have not won a Week 1 game in 10 years. That’s right: they’re 0-9-1 SU over their last 10 Week 1 games and have won just one Week 1 game in the last 16 years! Considering the fact that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were a part of a chunk of those, it seems like they may be cursed! In all seriousness, Houston is the better team on both sides of the ball and I expect them to earn the road victory.
Bet this over at DraftKings using our exclusive offer found on the page below!
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Lions -3.5 vs. Rams (-110, BetMGM)
Jared Goff has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in Week 1 games as an NFL starter and while I admit that I’m a sucker for undefeated betting trends, this is a spot to target another legitimate Super Bowl contender, this time on their home field. Detroit beat LA in the playoffs, is already in Matthew Stafford’s head after booing the 12-year Lion in that January game and chirping him leading up to this game and most notably, the Lions improved their outside cornerback spots by trading for Carlton Davis and drafting Terrion Arnold in the first round. Puka Nacua went off for 181 receiving yards and torched the Lions’ secondary in that playoff game; even with Cooper Kupp back healthy, there should be a bit more resistance on that side of the ball. Detroit has stars on both sides of the football, and like the Texans against the Colts above, is simply the more complete team on both sides of the football.
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Jets +5.5 at 49ers (-105, DraftKings)
I would assume that there’s trouble in paradise over in San Francisco after the Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams drama that ensued this offseason and now even more has happened with rookie Ricky Pearsall tragically getting shot in the chest last week. Luckily he’s going to make a full recovery it sounds like, but there’s a lot happening in this San Francisco locker room right now and I’d assume there’s a bit of a rift between players, the coaching staff, the front office and ownership at the moment. Brock Purdy was, in my opinion, the luckiest QB in recent memory last season and benefitted from the star power around him and missed opportunities from opposing defenses. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers back, Breece Hall healthy, weapons around them on offense and arguably the best defense in the NFL to lean on. Not only that, but since 1998, underdogs on Week 1 Monday Night Football games have gone a dominant 29-12 ATS.
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