Every year, the NFL ventures out to different countries to try to expand the game and branch out across the world. They do this through the NFL International series, which is played in the United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil and they are trying to expand to a bunch of other places. We have already had a game this season down in Brazil, and the Philadelphia Eagles took home the victory over the Green Bay Packers 34-29 in Week 1, and covered as a small -2 favorite. When it comes to these international games, this has been commonplace so far.
International favorites have been money in the NFL when it comes to covering spreads. They have gone 34-10-1 SU and 30-15 ATS, just dominating the underdogs.This weekend, we have another international game in London, England, where the New York Jets will take on the Minnesota Vikings in what should be a great game for the British to behold. The Vikings are a -2.5 favorite in this game, so will they continue the trend of favorites covering and winning at a crazy rate?
New York comes into this game off a terrible loss to the Denver Broncos at home, a game in which they scored just nine points. They lost 10-9 in a very low-scoring affair in the rain, where Broncos QB Bo Nix threw for less than 100 yards and managed to win. As a result of that, the public opinion of the Jets has dropped drastically, as Denver is not a team that many people consider to be any good.
QB Aaron Rodgers is having his worst season statistically so far, with just a 50.1 QBR through four games, which would make him the 19th ranked signal-caller in the league. The defense has looked pretty good for the most part, and they have the second-best passing defense in football to this point. Of course, holding Nix under 100 yards last week helped their cause quite a lot.
The Vikings have been the surprise team of the NFL this season, as they were projected to finish last in the NFC North, and instead they have started the season out 4-0. Whenever an undefeated team is playing, the public is generally going to bet on them. Minnesota might be at the very peak of their market right now, which is always a good time to sell.
QB Sam Darnold has looked like an MVP candidate to this point, with 11 touchdowns already this season and a very impressive 73.5 QBR. That is good for third in the NFL right now, so he has been playing like a top five QB instead of the placeholder that we thought he would be until J.J. McCarthy was healthy again, who was their rookie first-round pick at QB.
Despite how good favorites have been in the International games, I find it very difficult to bet on Minnesota in this spot. I play the NFL market just like the stock market, you buy low and you sell high. The Vikings have become Microsoft as of late, while the Jets are RadioShack. Everyone wants a piece of the Vikings and no one wants New York. For that reason, I think that the Jets will come away with the victory overseas.
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