Early in Wednesday's show, BMitch & Finlay spent some time going over the potential Commanders who could become salary cap casualty cuts as we enter roster rebuild season, and some players arounf the NFL who could be in that boat but fit in DC.
They also broke down the pros and cons of drafting Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, pitting the two against each other and wondered how committed teams actually are to their quarterbacks, rookie (or other) contracts aside, given how it's now the most important position in the game.
It's all about the rebuild, and sometimes you have to trust the numbers, and so when Brian & JP consulted WaPo analytics guru Neil Greenberg…yeah, it is all about the QB, but to kick-start a rebuild, you have to find some of those gems on the cheap, whether it be hitting on a late-round pick like Kamren Curl or finding a cap casualty cut and turning him into a stud.
"You have to start at the quarterback, like we've talked about – you need to get that right, and yes, everyone would love a Patrick Mahomes type, but what you really need is an above-average player at a below-average market cost so that you can fill out the rest of the roster," Greenberg said. "You only get a few years of cost control with young players, and once that cost control is over, things start to balloon very quickly. Every year we set records for positional contracts, except maybe at running back."
That's why for Greenberg, the right choice at No. 2, or wherever Washington may land, is a QB.
"When you haven't been good and you're getting a chance to pick high in the draft, you've got to go with the position that's the most impact," Greenberg said. "You need to have good players in the trenches and the quarterback needs to have players to throw to, et cetera, but we've seen time and again that an above-average quarterback on a below-average market contract can pay a lot of dividends for a number of years."
Mahomes is a weird outlier, though, because he makes a lot of money but the Chiefs are a dynasty, so it's a good and bad example in every way. So, when it comes to building elsewhere, BMitch asked in a way only he can: when it comes to teams that 'build their beefies' versus teams that 'build their sexies,' which one gets further faster?
"What I have looked at is what the most dependable positions at the draft are, and what I mean by that is, where are you most likely to get an above average player?" Greenberg said. "Offensive line is certainly one of them, quarterback is not as reliable as you might think, and wide receiver is a little more reliable – but given the choice, I would go beefy. The sexy players get the money too, even when they don't necessarily deserve it, and you don't see a lot of linemen in diva mode demanding top dollar. They're usually quietly taken care of – around the league, the value of a left tackle is obviously widely known – but and even the defensive line are getting a lot of money and becoming more and more important, so if given the choice, I would definitely go beefy."
Okay, so we know how to rebuild – but when will Greenberg really dive in to which quarterback fits best for the Commanders, something BMitch & Finlay debated on Thursday themselves?
"My thought process has changed a little bit after Pro Football Focus came out with an article that looked at Patrick Mahomes and then looked at players that create in a similar way," Greenberg said. "This isn't to say that these are the next Patrick Mahomes, just players that are best at extending plays and making something out of nothing, have low pressure to sack rates, and are able to do similar things that Patrick Mahomes can do – the prospects in the highest tier are Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix, and in tier two, you have Drake Maye and Jaden Daniels. That surprised me a little bit because that kind of brings us back to the question of what to do at No. 2, and if you honestly think that either of Penix or Nix can even be as good as Maye or Daniels, then trading back becomes a real avenue to success. I really wasn't expecting that for them to be in that type of class, so that certainly has changed my opinion a little bit."
You could get a sizeable haul for No. 2, as well, but there's also other concerns like Penix Jr.'s history of knee issues that need to be looked at, too.
"When you're trading back and you're getting players lower in the draft, they all have warts, right? Like, there's a reason why they slip, and it becomes a risk-reward calculation," Greenberg said. "Tthe reward is to have a quarterback that is similar to Patrick Mahomes and there's obviously varying gradations of that, but is that worth trading back, getting more picks, plugging more holes in a roster that's full of holes, and taking that risk? We don't know how good any of these guys are gonna be, it really is just a roll of the dice in a lot of different respects, so I'm just saying how I'm looking at it has changed a little bit, and I now see value in trading back where perhaps I didn't before, only because if you're improving your team, you're not expecting to draft this high, and if you're going to draft this high, it makes sense to take the best possible quarterback."
