The Washington Commanders opened (on May 12) as a 5.5-point favorite over the Arizona Cardinals in BetMGM’s Week 1 NFL odds.
Three and a half months later, the Commanders are a 7-point favorite, the second-biggest favorite of Week 1, only behind the Baltimore Ravens (-10 vs. the Houston Texans).
The over/under total has also moved, dropping from 41 at open to 38.5, the lowest total of Week 1. And if the total remains under 40 until kickoff on Sunday, Sept. 10, this will be just the 10th regular-season game in the last three years with a favorite of at least seven points and a total lower than 40.
In the last 10 years (2013-22), there have been only 44 such games, only one of which occurred in Week 1 — the Baltimore Ravens smashed the Buffalo Bills as a 7.5-point favorite in 2018.
The Ravens’ 44-point win was one of 22 ATS wins for favorites of at least 7 points in games with a total lower than 40. The favorites are 22-18-4 (.555).
For context: Favorites of at least seven points in all games have an ATS winning percentage of .496 since 2013.
In those 44 games since 2013, the over is 26-18 (.590).
For context: The over in all sub-40 games has a hit rate of .509 over that time.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Commanders-Cardinals odds and more NFL betting opportunities.
Keep up with 106.7 The Fan via:
Audacy App | Online Stream | Twitter | Facebook | Instagram
Keep up with 980 The Team via:
Audacy App | Online Stream | Twitter | Facebook | Instagram