On the surface, the Philadelphia Eagles-Washington Commanders matchup in Week 16 appears to feature betting strengths vs. betting strengths.
Both teams have been good against the spread this season — Eagles are 9-5, Commanders at 8-5-1. The Eagles have been great on the road (6-1), while the Commanders have been great at home (5-2). And the Eagles have been mediocre as favorites (6-5), as have the Commanders as underdogs (2-2).
What are some team and league trends beneath those numbers that might be relevant for spread betting on Sunday?
Favorites of exactly 3 points are just 2-6-1 in December, but still profitable for the season at 19-16-3 (+3.9% ROI). As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Eagles are a 3-point road favorite.
Road favorites of exactly 3 points are 11-5-2 (+28.2%) this season and 36-23-9 (+14.5%) since 2021. If the spread moves to -2.5 by kickoff, 2.5-point favorites are 3-3 this year (-6.9%) and 24-21 (+0.9%) since 2021
The Commanders were the NFL’s worst home team against the spread from 2021-23 with a record of 7-16-2 (-38.8%). And while they’ve been the third-best team this year at 5-2 (36.1%), they were favored in each game.
Through his first 34 games as Eagles’ coach when favored, Nick Sirianni went 19-13-2 against the spread. In his next eight games as a favorite, he covered only once. But since then the Eagles are 5-2 when favored, including five covers in their last five opportunities.
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