In case you missed it on The Team 980 this morning, Eric Eager of SumerSports joined Kevin Sheehan and had this to say in calling Sam Howell a “backup quarterback” in the making:
“I think Sam Howell is a very good backup quarterback in the NFL. He can lose you a game, sacks and interceptions and things like that, but he can win you a game, too, which I think is very characteristic of the guy that preceded him in Taylor Heinicke,” Eager said. “I don't know if he's a long-term answer. Sack rates are incredibly stable year-to-year, it's hard to shake that. And so, if I'm Washington I'm, obviously, looking to a different place with that position. But as far as a bridge to the future while you're trying to figure out whether or not you want to continue the course with Ron Rivera, possibly move to somebody like Eric Bieniemy or something completely different, I think that he's been fine."
Well, Eager doubled down on that notion when he joined Grant Paulsen later in the day, saying this to go further into how Howell is more Heinicke or Tyrod Taylor than the answer:
“In the long-term, I think he’s more of a backup. When you look at it, he’s very athletic, generated about 11 expected points when running which is fourth in the NFL, and he’s pretty accurate downfield and can make all the throws,” Eager said. “But to me, it’s the sack rates. When you look at some of the best QBs ever, Dan Marino led the NFL in fewest sacks taken the first seven years of his career, and Mark Rypien in 1991 took sacks on only 1.6 percent of his dropbacks – Howell takes a sack on 13.7 percent of his dropbacks.
His expected points added as a passer is about negative-21, and there are only a few quarterbacks who have generated less value when they drop back to throw. We’ve been conditioned to look at certain stats that Howell is good at, but a sack is generally speaking worth about two points to a defense – and it’s one of those statistics that is very stable year to year.”
All of the other deficiencies Howell may have, Eager says, can be overcome, but teams have fewer possessions per game, and sacks are the biggest killer of drives besides turnovers, so you can do the math - and that sack rate is part of why Howell slipped to the fifth round, in his eyes.
“We haven’t seen a precedent for guys to improve that drastically,” Eager said. “There are rare occasions, but when you go through statistics and analytics, sack rate, pressure rate, and pressures turned into sacks are as good of predictors as anything. You’re asking a guy to improve in what is the stickiest situation in football. Justin Herbert did it from Oregon to the NFL, but can you bank on it? No. I think he can be a plus backup in the NFL, and when you look at that with a guy that was taken in Round 5, that’s a good outcome. I don’t necessarily think he’s good, but he is encouraging, and on the longshot he can take that step, he can be a good starter in the NFL.”
Grant Paulsen’s reaction following Eager’s appearance? It’s less about Sam and more about the skill.
“I’ve been immensely impressed by Howell, and on plays where he isn’t sacked, he looks like a franchise QB – but I do believe that’s a fatal flaw if he can’t fix it,” GP said. “It’s less about Howell and more about how important avoiding sacks is – it’s critical and massive. As of a couple weeks ago, on drives in this league where you are not sacked, you get points at a rate that is almost double or more than on drives where you are sacked. That can go for any offense. I think Eager’s point is avoiding sacks is more important maybe than some of the other things we look for statistically with quarterbacks.”
Take a listen to both Eager’s segment, as well as Grant’s reaction, above!
