In their Commanders stock report on Friday, Grant & Danny had a lot of guys who will get more run Sunday as stock up: this year’s late draftees on the edge, Andre Jones & K.J. Henry, who will likely play more after the Montez Sweat and Chase Young trades, and Casey Toohill and James Smith-Williams, who take over as starters; Tyler Larsen, who took over for Nick Gates at center; and Dyami Brown, who could see more action with Curtis Samuel out.
When it comes to the D-line, well, Grant said that “it's not gonna be marquee production or flash, it’s be accountable and do your job.”
So within that, what are the guys’ keys to victory Sunday in New England?
Well, after playing a clip of Sam Howell explaining how executing on the early downs and maintaining an offensive identity was key to them sustaining drives against Philly, we found out that from Grant at least, it’s all about the offense against Bill Belichick’s D.
“If Washington can minimize negative plays, they're gonna beat the Patriots,” Grant said. “That involves sacks, but that's also runs for minus-two yards that put them behind the sticks. I think this is the kind of game where they're gonna be able to get their five and six at a time in the passing game. I think the Patriots for the most part allow you to dink and dunk your way down the field, and Sam Howell was like 18 of 20 in the first half last week. That's not because they were going deep, it was a lot of quick drops, slants and screens – and the Patriots are a bend, not break kind of team where they give you that stuff while trying to not give you anything explosive down the field.”
That’s what a lot of the league, especially teams “short on talent,” are doing right now, and Grant thinks that in a close matchup with two similarly talented teams, execution is key.
“This is not a team that's more talented than you necessarily; they're favored because you're on the road,” GP said. “If you can avoid those negatives and just get your field goals where you can, get into field goal range and take your threes and score a touchdown or two, you're gonna have 17 or 20 points at some point in the fourth quarter and be right there, either leading or within a possession in striking distance. So it’s not even turnovers or the catastrophic play, just the negatives.”
Danny agrees that both teams mirror each other in many ways – so yes, productive first downs leading to sustained drives are a must.
“Both teams are reprehensibly bad on third down, so for Washington, it’s productive first downs,” Danny said. “It doesn't have to be 10 yards every time; I’d love to move the chains every play, but positives for four or five yards, keep it moving and keep them guessing, manageable third downs is really good. On the other side for Washington’s defense, New England is not equipped to do a third and long, so enjoy, have fun, knock Mac Jones all over the place.”
One other key? Both teams are in the Top 5 in the NFL in red zone percentage, so strike when the iron is hottest.
“When they get there, they should do a pretty good job of scoring touchdowns, so my strategy would be to prevent them from getting there,” Danny said.
“I think if you can run the ball well, generally you're good in the red zone, and I'm quite sure that's New England's philosophy,” GP replied. “It's a little more surprising with Washington, although I would say Bieniemy comes from a place they're incredible in goal line and short yardage offense down near the end zone. Also, I think Washington's built pretty well in the red zone; Dotson and McLaurin win occasionally one-on-one on the outside and Logan Thomas is huge and goes up the ladder. But, the Patriots, when they get inside the 20, they're gonna call some running plays, and they're pretty powerful and effective when doing that down there.”
