We’ve heard from several sources that the Commanders’ head coach job is desirable, and was perhaps the best of those that came available this offseason – yet, here we are, the calendar about to turn to February, with DC one of two left and the presumed top target off the board.
ESPN’s Seth Walder, who studies the analytics, believed Ben Johnson was going to end up in DC, so as he told the Junkies, he’s surprised because the Commanders were, indeed, a very attractive destination.
“It seemed like Johnson had all of the attractive qualities you could look for from what we saw on the outside,” Walder said. “It’s surprising because I look at the Commanders’ job as extremely attractive; you have the No. 2 pick and a lot of extra picks, a lot of cap space, and an owner that seems willing to invest. That’s all really good. I understand it’s great when you can get into a situation with an elite QB already, but outside of that, this is like a rebuild where you’ve done all the hard parts already.”
Johnson has all the weapons in Detroit and perhaps unfinished business after a run to the NFC Title Game, so Cakes, for one, can understand wanting to stay – and yeah, Walder can see it.
“If he’s happy, good for him; I think ultimately, not everybody needs to always feel like they have to make that kind of kind of jump, and people could do whatever they want,” Walder said. “So if he’s happy and he feels like he's in a good situation, you just wanna stay where you are, then by all means do that.”
Disappointing for the Commanders and Seahawks, at least, as no one really knows what other offers were or would be out there with every other coaching job filled, but now, we wait.
There’s thought of looking again, maybe at a Mike Vrabel type, and Walder is surprised neither he nor Bill Belichick got much in the way of action this cycle, even after they were let go by previous teams, but it seems like ‘young, hot coordinator’ is the play – so should the Commanders pivot to Mike Macdonald?
“If I were Washington at this point, I would want Macdonald,” Walder said. “Generally offense is what you want, it’s more predictive and stable year-to-year, but if I'm going to defenses, I would want someone who is innovative, who changed something and had a lot of success. That was Macdonald, the way they ran simulated blitzes more often than anybody else and they were very successful with that, giving themselves one-on-one matchups and then numbers in coverage. Look at his performance against the McVay and Shanahan offenses this year: they performed dramatically worse against the Ravens, which is what you would expect because they're a good defense, but it was even more than average. In this era where you have that kind of coaching tree having so much success in the NFL, I would think that someone who showed a counter punch is a really nice asset.”
And even with all that Seattle offers in terms of established talent and culture, Walder still sees the Commanders as the better option between the last two teams.
“I would be more attracted to Washington, and I don’t really think it's close,” Walder said. “But, I have this bias here that to me, Josh Harris coming in, having had this kind of quantitative background in other sports, is a huge plus for me. It’s going to be crucial and help you across the board. But even if you just think about from a quarterback standpoint,, I think Geno Smith is a solid quarterback, but you're more likely to just get caught in no man's land there in Seattle, where I think in Washington, maybe it's more high risk/high reward, but I just would rather take that path and feel like you have the opportunity to get not just a rookie quarterback on a rookie deal, but really be also be able to fill out the roster around him and shape it the way you want to, because you're gonna have so many resources.”
Take a listen to Walder’s entire segment above, where he looks at the state of the Commanders’ roster, Dan Campbell’s decisions in the NFC Title Game, good Super Bowl props, and more!
