Analytics are both good and bad, depending on who you talk to (ask BMitch, for example, on the latter…), but when Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson joined the Junkies Tuesday with his analytics take, well, JP brought up how the Commanders last year were statistically Top 5 in scoring and Top 10 overall, and this year they’re at the bottom.
You don’t need analytics, though, to see that the current D has one strong point and two rather weak ones.
“It’s been a strange unit. They have a lot of talent on that defense but it hasn't necessarily been playing up to it, certainly on the back end,” Monson said. “They've actually still playing pretty well up front, the defensive line is getting a ton of pressure and Chase Young is putting together maybe the best season we've seen from him, but it’s not making a difference because the back end is giving up coverage constantly. They're not in tight coverage, they're busting coverages, and it’s been an incredibly slow start from that back seven. I think that's the root of all the issues on defense at the moment.”
So, then, how does PFF grade a guy like Young, having a great season by the eye test on a struggling defense?
“Pressure is valuable in and of itself, because everyone's trying to get sacks, and obviously those are the most valuable pass rushing plays – sacks, strip sacks, fumbles, all those kinds of things, that’s what everybody's shooting for,” Monson said. “But, getting pressure consistently is an important aspect of being a pass rusher. If you just apply pressure on the quarterback over a large sample size, that guy's passer rating is gonna go down 30 to 35 points; even if you’re never able to get home and get a sack or force a fumble, you can impact that passing game negatively. So, it’s a big thing, and usually, when guys get a ton of pressure over a period of time, the sacks are gonna come. Sometimes sacks are luck dependent, and if you just keep beating your guy and getting pressure on the quarterback, firstly, it's, it's having an impact already, and secondly, the sacks are probably on the horizon somewhere as well. So, Chase Young's grading well; he's winning consistently and he's winning quickly as well, which is another important thing and another indicator that sacks are gonna come as well, because it’s a repeatable skill.”
As JP noted, Nick Bosa, who has just 2.5 sacks, is PFF’s highest rated edge defender, so it’s not all about the numbers.
“There's an incredible glut of these amazing edge rushers in the NFL today, five or six guys that could be putting together defensive player of the year type seasons and they're all doing it at the same time,” Monson said. “Young coming into the NFL was as good as, if not better than, any of them, so I don't think there's anything to say that he can't get to that kind of level. One of those things is how much pressure you’re getting and how often you’re winning and how decisive is the victory – all those things get folded in, but won’t show up in pressure numbers or sack numbers.”
So, then, why is the Commanders’ D 18th in PFF”s overall performance despite being near the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed?
“Grading is essentially just a composite of the performance of every individual, so when we talk about the line playing really well, those guys will boost that overall defensive grade, but all of it is being let down by the players behind them,” Monson said. “So when you start looking at the other numbers, you were talking about the overall production of the defense, that's where you're gonna find those much more in line with those box score numbers.”
Monson noted EPA per play – ‘the classic nerd stat that's being used lately, which effectively is think of it as pass rating adjusted for situation, down, and distance – and how the commanders are 25th, so ‘all that good work of the players they have that are playing well on defense is being undone by the poor performances, and that's having this effect on the overall production of that defense, which is just giving up way too much.’
Take a listen to Monson’s entire hit above, which includes thoughts on Sam Howell and his analytics and more!
