The Buffalo Bills enter the 2022 season as Super Bowl favorites, according to many NFL pundits. While that shouldn’t be surprising, at least one prominent sports mind — Ringer CEO and podcaster Bill Simmons — still needs convincing.
Led by cannon-armed quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo certainly doesn’t lack for star power. Even so, Simmons is mystified that so many are already anointing a team that won only 11 games last season.
“They’re -230 for the division. They’re one of the Super Bowl favorites, +650. They’re No. 1 seed in the AFC, +280. They’re just being penciled in,” said Simmons on Thursday’s episode of "The Bill Simmons Podcast". “I guess my question is this — are we sure Buffalo is this good?”
As Simmons alluded to, the Bills struggled against winning opponents last year, finishing a combined 6-6 (postseason included) against teams over .500, including losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and, of course, the Kansas City Chiefs in the memorable AFC Divisional Round game.
“Go look at their wins last year. It was like K.C. Week 5, they beat the [New England Patriots] twice, including the playoffs and they beat Miami [Dolphins]. I think those were the only three above .500 teams they beat,” Simmons argued. “They played a bunch of sh-- quarterbacks. The schedule is much harder this year. They’re favored in this Rams game in L.A. They’re being treated like the 2018 Chiefs. It’s a little ambitious to me.”
According to NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp, the Bills rank 18th out of 32 teams in strength of schedule, with eight games against opponents that reached the playoffs in 2021 (Los Angeles, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals and New England). While it’s true the Bills weren’t exactly a model of consistency, it’s hard to identify their weakness, allowing the league’s fewest points per-game (17) last season, while also ranking fifth in total yards.
Whether it’s his New England bias showing or Simmons holding their past history against them, he’s likely in the minority, with most recognizing the Bills as one of the most complete teams in football.
Well-coached with a deep roster and a chip on their shoulder after losing the heartbreaker to Kansas City last year, the Bills stand a reasonable chance of improving on last year’s record. This is especially the case after adding former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller — the NFL’s active leader in career sacks — in free agency.
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