Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) – It’s “only” Week 4. Most fantasy leagues have 11 weeks of regular season games to come. It’s early.
Or is it?
If your team is good, or even about average, there’s not much pressure to change things up. But if you’re 0-3 or even maybe 1-2 with holes in your lineup, the season doesn't feel “early” anymore at all.
As the NFL season unfolds, the picture of how teams are intending to use their players becomes clear, and that clarity can be enough to move on from some preseason darlings – even if it is still “only” September.
Sure, things can change in any given week, if a team spots a matchup strength or weakness in its following game, making predictions constantly challenging for the fantasy manager. But by now, we pretty much know which players and tendencies teams prefer to lean on.
I’ve singled out a few players about whom I’ve drawn conclusions after three weeks. It can be hard to act on these. I mean, you draft a guy in the early rounds and you don’t want to punt on the pick so soon.
But if you stand pat too long, you’ll watch your season turn to dust.
Let’s examine:
D.J. Moore - Wide receiver - Carolina Panthers
The Panthers’ best receiver has a miniscule seven receptions through three games, on only 18 targets.
It’s not Moore’s fault; the problem is the passing game overall. No Carolina player has more than 10 catches (Christian McCaffrey).
Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed 42 passes through three games – the same number Josh Allen completed Sunday in Miami.
Moore was the 14th wide receiver off the board in drafts, the 39th player. Are we talking about benching (not cutting) an early fourth-round pick? Absolutely.
If the Panthers were down bigger in games, you’d like to think Moore, McCaffrey and even Robbie Anderson would see more throws. But that’s a tough bet to make.
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So who’s the flipside player here, someone probably not drafted at all that I’d start in place? Believe it or not…
Zay Jones - Wide receiver - Jacksonville Jaguars
You’ve probably noticed that the Jaguars are playing very well. Their point differential of plus-46 through three games is second-best in the league, only behind the Buffalo Bills.
It appears that the leap from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson at head coach has been massive.
Who leads the Trevor Lawrence-led passing game in receptions? None other than Jones, a second-round pick of the Bills back in 2017.
Jones has 19 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown. Christian Kirk is well-above Jones in yards, but Jones has been efficient and productive enough to give fantasy managers a pretty solid floor (12 points per-game in points-per-reception leagues).
Jones was essentially forgotten in fantasy drafts, but I’m saying it: It’s Week 4 and I’d be starting him over Moore this week.
I’d also start him over…
Allen Robinson II - Wide receiver - Los Angeles Rams
It’s a scant 12 targets over three games for Robinson, and that’s on a much better offense in Los Angeles than ones he’s played on throughout his career. So far, the bump we’d hoped for from that upgrade has not occurred, to say the least.
Cooper Kupp is, again, dominating, and tight end Tyler Higbee has earned, literally, double the targets through three weeks that Robinson has (24 to 12). Ben Skowronek also outranks Robinson (13 targets). Ouch!
Robinson appears to have a role in the red zone, which is good, but you can’t sit there and stick two catches a week in your lineup hoping for a touchdown. That’s what tight ends are for!
Take Robinson out of your flex and put in this year’s RB52 in average draft position...
Jamaal Williams - Running back - Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift is injured and may miss a couple of games, but I’m here advocating for starting Williams either way.
Williams was an afterthought in most drafts, but believe me when I tell you, I was hoping to pick him late in every draft. (If you don’t know, I was in a lot of them. An embarrassing amount, really.)
I’m happy to say I have a lot of Jamaal Williams teams, although I haven’t been starting him too often. If Swift is out, he’s going in, and, arguably, should have been in lineups already.
Double-digit rush attempts in each game, he’s got four rushing touchdowns already, and the Lions don’t mind throwing him the ball either.
The offense is good, too. Play Williams with confidence.
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Benching players you drafted to be not only starters but stars on your team is not a good feeling. Moore and Robinson would have been the first receiver drafted on many teams.
Let’s wrap things up looking at two more guys you drafted to start, where right now, it’s tough to be doing that:
Aaron Rodgers - Quarterback - Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady - Quarterback - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A vintage matchup between two legends of the game, Sunday’s Packers-Buccaneers game was not. 14-12 for a Brady-Rodgers game? Come on.
Each quarterback gave you a passable start (no pun intended), but through three weeks, both Brady and Rodgers have been tough to live with in fantasy.
Both are outside of the top-20 in NFL passing yards this season – behind Geno Smith! And with there being little-to-no rushing value in either player, Brady and Rodgers owners have to be jealous of the teams with top-tier quarterbacks.
I do think Brady and Rodgers each have a chance to improve as fantasy assets soon – especially Brady, as he starts to get his top receivers back. Tampa has been such a pass-heavy team under Brady, and they haven’t been so far this year with a depleted receiving corps.
Green Bay, meanwhile, is in the process of figuring out who its best receivers are. Rookie Romeo Doubs made a mark on Sunday, catching all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. He’s the one (and only) Packers receiver I want on my roster right now.
Are we benching Brady or Rodgers? Maybe, yeah.
Is it comfortable starting, say, Marcus Mariota over them? No, but I’m fine with it.
Mariota and the Atlanta offense have some life, and with young receiving talents such as Kyle Pitts and Drake London, they really need to be throwing the ball.
You drafted Brady and Rodgers not expecting to “stream” quarterbacks (the term for starting a different one every week that you grab off waivers), but here we are.
Mariota, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff. These guys weren’t drafted to be fantasy starters this year, but they’re respectable as such now.
