Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) – When the Buffalo Sabres go into the third period with the lead, there’s a 47.4% chance they’re going to lose the game.
When the Florida Panthers or Arizona Coyotes lead at the end of two periods, there’s a 100% chance they’re winning. Florida has gone into the third period with the lead 23 times and won all 23 games. Arizona has gone into the third period with the lead six times and won all six games. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Nashville Predators, Calgary Flames, Vegas Golden Knights, Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets have lost just one game when leading after two.
The Sabres have lost nine games this season when leading into the third period. The next worst team in the NHL is the Los Angeles Kings with six losses.
As a matter of fact, in the last two seasons, the Panthers have lost just two of 51 games when leading after two periods.
It’s to the point now that whether it’s a one-goal lead or a two-goal lead, it’s likely the Sabres are going to lose that game.
So what happened Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets?
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Buffalo played a really good second period, where they dictated the pace, had good puck possession and erased a 1-0 deficit.
Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner went to work off the opening faceoff of the third period and got a puck to Alex Tuch in front, who calmly scored to give Buffalo a 3-1 lead.
A lot has gone into this team losing leads, and a big part of it is they don’t get a key save.
Just 4:35 after the Tuch goal, Mark Pysyk does his job to snuff out a very average rush, pushing Brendan Gaunce to the extreme outside. Gaunce flips an off-angle shot at Dustin Tokarski and the puck gets through him.
This is a fragile team, and a goal like that with a two-goal lead just can’t happen. The easy save must be made there.
The Blue Jackets got away with some penalties as the third period went on, and then Kyle Okposo got called for holding. I understand the frustration of the no-calls, but your team leader can’t take a penalty like he did knowing how fragile the team is.
Moments later, Oliver Bjorkstrand found himself alone in front and the game was tied. Columbus didn’t even need the whole period to erase a two-goal deficit, they only needed 14:13 to do it.
The game got to overtime, and head coach Don Granato knows how bad his team is in the extra time. He decided to start with two defensemen on the ice with Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju. I give him credit for trying something different.
Thompson lost the opening faceoff and Jakub Voracek got the puck in his own zone. At that time, Voracek had one goal in 43 games, but he hit top speed and blew by Thompson, who was flat footed, creating a 3-on-2 rush. Dahlin was in good position with Voracek coming at him, but he now is playing scared and just keeps backing in. He never stepped up to meet Voracek like he would’ve earlier in the game. That allowed Voracek to cut from the right circle to the middle and rip home the game-winner. Tokarski wasn’t even close to being square in his net for the shot.
There are three major errors in the 16 seconds of overtime. After the game, Dahlin took responsibility.
"He had a lot of speed, and I was flat-footed. I just backed off, and I've got to have a better gap," Dahlin said following the loss. "If I don't have that gap, I've got to block the shot. That's on me."
I don’t know what to tell you. They talk about learning from these situations, but it doesn’t get any better. They know that there’s a 47% chance they’re going to lose when having a third period lead and they play like it.
Is this who they are? Is this how the young players will handle the pressure of an overtime game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Of course, we won’t know until we actually see them in the playoffs, but Granato seems to be out of answers when it comes to this. He said it’s his job to coach this out of them.
The Sabres are 46 games through the season, and there’s not even a hint of improvement in this area.
