From AccuWeather:
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days for the potential of heavy rain and unsettled conditions along the Gulf Coast.
While the disturbance responsible for this was once a potential early season tropical threat, forecasters say that despite the poor weather conditions, a subtropical or tropical system is now looking less likely.
It is generally a rare occurrence for tropical depressions or storms to form in April, but it has happened over the years. The most recent named storm to form in April was Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed over the central Atlantic in 2017.
However, no tropical systems have ever been documented in the Gulf of Mexico during April.
Interestingly enough, the first name on the list that will be used to identify 2023 Atlantic storms is Arlene.
Despite this threat, there is a list of factors that would have to line up correctly for a tropical system to develop. AccuWeather forecasters say that meeting all of this criteria will be a tall order for this week's system.
The initial spark for tropical system formation may occur as a dip in the jet stream, high in the atmosphere, plunges toward the Gulf of Mexico this week.
The jet stream may then break off and form what meteorologists call a closed low.
Provided this closed low can linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough, it is possible that a low-pressure area may spin down to the lower part of the atmosphere and acquire some tropical characteristics.
