Fred emerged from Hispaniola as a poorly organized tropical depression on Thursday morning. But, AccuWeather meteorologists say the system could eventually regain tropical-storm force — or even hurricane force — as it churns up the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fred will threaten to make two U.S.
landfalls, both of which could occur in Florida.
Damaging winds and coastal flooding are both likely to result from Fred, but AccuWeather forecasters are most concerned by the threat of excessive rainfall and flooding that could ensue if the storm slows down significantly over the southeastern U.S. as predicted.
"People need to remain vigilant about this system as it is likely to make a comeback prior to reaching the U.S. this weekend," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"There is a good chance for two landfalls in the U.S.
with Fred with the first likely in the Florida Keys early Saturday and the second likely over northern Florida by early next week," Rayno said.
On Thursday, Fred was about 80 miles northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph -- down from 45 mph a day earlier. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph. Tropical storm watches remained in effect for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba on Thursday, despite Fred’s downgrade to a tropical depression Wednesday evening.
There are some hurdles that the storm will face in order to maintain strength through late this week. Dry air is one factor that may come into play as the storm navigates the Greater Antilles into Friday. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, with peaks reaching as high as 10,000 feet, have already distorted and even weakened the tropical system. The high terrain tends to disrupt the circulation of tropical systems, which dwell in the lower part of the atmosphere.
Fred is anticipated to travel across water as it passes Cuba; however, due to the close proximity to land, strengthening will likely be a slow process.
It’s not out of the question that Fred could diminish altogether due to these influences by Friday, but AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Fred will survive and may even re-organize near the northern coast of Cuba later Friday and Friday night. That has set the stage for concerns in the U.S., with impacts due to a strengthening tropical storm expected to begin by this weekend. There is even the potential for Fred to regain enough strength to reach hurricane status while in the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with Fred may reach parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys as early as Friday afternoon and evening as the system continues to move to the northwest.
Heavy rain and gusty winds from Fred are forecast to spread across Florida this weekend and the southeastern United States mainland late in the weekend and into early next week, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tony Zartman said. The risk will exist for waterspouts and tornadoes to spin up, especially in the Florida Keys and along the Gulf coast of Florida as Fred churns in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The strength and prevalence of winds to impact the Florida Keys and the peninsula will depend on the exact track and intensity Fred takes as the storm approaches. Water temperatures were like bath water in the region that Fred will journey over -- a factor that’s likely to fuel the system’s reorganization. The water temperature at Key West was 88.5 F on Thursday.
Exactly how much strengthening occurs north of Cuba and later in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is uncertain at this point, but there is the potential for the Florida Keys and the Gulf coast of Florida to be affected by a strong tropical storm starting this weekend. Despite concerns over wind shear inhibiting intensification, this element could actually help strengthen Fred.
"While some increase in wind shear seems likely over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could be a case where a moderate amount of mid-level shear and other factors actually help to vent Fred and allow the system to strengthen quickly," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
A moderate amount of wind shear actually helped eastern Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Hermine in 2016 to strengthen in this manner.
A weak tropical storm that moves northward over the peninsula or bounces along the western coast of Florida may bring locally heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms all the way to the Atlantic coast of Florida. A system that behaves this way may not bring a tremendous amount of rain or wind to any location due to weakening caused by more interaction with land.
On the other hand, a strengthening tropical storm that takes a path across the Florida Keys and into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico may bring little impact to Florida's Atlantic coast but may still track close enough to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Florida's west coast.
AccuWeather meteorologists are leaning toward a track just off the Gulf coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Elsa behaved in this manner during early July, but Elsa had peaked as a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean and briefly restrengthened to a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Elsa weakened back into a tropical storm prior to making landfall north of Tampa on July 8.
"Wind gusts of 40-60 mph can arrive in the Florida Keys as early as Friday night and could reach the southwest coast of Florida early Saturday," Zartman stated.
Gusty winds are then expected to spread north over the Florida Peninsula and especially along the Gulf coast of Florida this weekend, eventually reaching the Florida Panhandle later Sunday or Sunday night.
"Winds are likely to peak late Sunday night into Monday near and to the east of where the center of Fred makes landfall, which is forecast to be over the central or eastern part of the Florida Panhandle at this time," Zartman said.
"In this area of Florida, wind gusts of 60-80 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph may occur and are likely to trigger sporadic to regional power outages and minor property damage," Zartman added.
A hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater.
Steering breezes that are currently guiding Fred along at a steady pace are expected to continue into the weekend. The breezes are being generated by an area of high pressure centered over the Atlantic Ocean.
During this weekend, a gap is forecast to develop in these winds near Florida, which should allow Fred to turn northward. As these steering breezes weaken by early next week, there is the potential for Fred to stall or slow to a crawl.
Should Fred move very slowly through the Southeastern states, prolonged heavy rainfall is possible during much of next week. Enough rain may fall to cause flooding problems to escalate from isolated flash and urban flooding to more general stream and river flooding in portions of northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
"A general 4-8 inches of rain is possible across these areas with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches due to slow movement," Zartman said. But if Fred were to completely stall, rainfall amounts could climb even higher, and precipitation would generally be confined to the Southeast.
If, on the other hand, Fred manages to keep moving at a steady pace, rainfall may end up being somewhat lower and flooding problems may be less severe. Downpours from the tropical system may eventually reach the mid-Atlantic coast. Some re-generation of Fred could occur offshore over the ocean in this scenario.
