Before slapping his career away at the Oscars, Will Smith inspired us with a quote from the movie Pursuit of Happyness: “If you want something, go get it. Period.”
After months of exhaustive research, pulling all-nighters in the film room and attending every workout under the sun, it’s time for the NFL’s 32 franchises to go get it. Players at glamour positions like quarterback tend to drive the narrative, but not this year. Led by Michigan behemoth Aidan Hutchinson, the trench warriors are finally getting their due, reminding us that flashy footwork and a cannon arm will only get you so far.
Skill guys may get all the glory, but there’s a price to be paid for neglecting the unsung heroes controlling the line of scrimmage. Football is a blood sport, won and lost by physical marvels who crave contact, imposing their will with rare strength and determination. We all like cake and frosting, but without eggs, flour and a bowl to mix it in, what are we left to eat?
With more dead ends and misdirects than a murder mystery (think Knives Out with chin straps and shoulder pads), this year’s first round carries an unusual amount of intrigue, the sole reason being that even the plugged-in likes of Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport have no earthy clue what’s about to happen. Smoke screens and deceit are in full bloom this time of year, so forgive me if my final mock turns out to be more miss than hit. Still, this should serve as a helpful primer, identifying team needs and motivations 72 hours before Roger Goodell goes in front of the Bellagio fountain to announce the first pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
2. Detroit Lions: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
3. Houston Texans: Ikem Ekwonu, T, NC State
4. New York Jets: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
5. New York Giants: Evan Neal, T, Alabama
Mock drafters seem legitimately torn—which was not the case as recently as two weeks ago—on who will be the top pick. Whether it’s Hutchinson (who believes he’ll be a Jaguar based on his “interactions” with the team) or Walker, Jacksonville can’t go wrong either way. Walker’s rise up draft boards, emerging as a legitimate candidate to go first overall, is surprising given his lack of production at Georgia (9.5 career sacks), though after testing through the roof in Indy, you can see why teams are bullish on the 21-year-old. Ekwonu is more a luxury than a necessity for Houston at No. 3 (especially with Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil signed through 2023), but when you pick twice in the top 13, you can afford to draft the best player available. The Giants are said to be open for business (a trade down seems well within the realm of possibility) and if a quarterback-needy team like Pittsburgh or New Orleans has a preference, they’ll probably need to move ahead of Carolina at No. 6. However, after another last-place finish in the NFC East (their third in five years), New York’s objective should be to leave Vegas with as many assets as possible.
6. Carolina Panthers: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
7. New York Giants (via Chicago): Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
8. Atlanta Falcons: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver): Charles Cross, T, Mississippi State
TRADE ALERT: Jets trade No. 10 overall pick to Packers for picks No. 22 and 28
10. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets and Seattle): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Kenny Pickett may be less of a “project” than Willis, but after quarterbacking Pitt for what felt like a decade (he arrived on campus in 2017), the soon-to-be 24-year-old is closer to his peak than he’d probably care to admit. Pickett should hit the ground running, though if we’re judging on pure potential, Willis’ upside is far higher, making him the better choice for the Panthers, a struggling franchise in desperate need of a spark. For a Giants defense that struggled to generate pressure last season (ninth-fewest sacks), Thibodeaux is a sight for sore eyes. The former High School Defensive Player of the Year would be an all-time coup if he makes it to the G-Men at No. 7. Quarterback will be a consideration for the Seahawks at nine, though I suspect they’re more apt to take one in Round 2 (picks 40 and 41). You want spicy? I have Green Bay going all in on ‘Bama burner Jameson Williams, moving up 12 spots in the draft’s first big shakeup. It’s a win-win if you think about it. After years of neglecting their receiving corps, the Packers finally get some much-needed help for Aaron Rodgers while the Jets—a fixer-upper if there ever was one—come away with an extra first-round pick.
11. Washington Commanders: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida
13. Houston Texans (via Cleveland): Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
TRADE ALERT: Eagles trade No. 15 overall pick to Steelers for picks No. 20 and 52
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (via Philadelphia and Miami): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Hamilton’s stock has plummeted since his underwhelming Combine performance, though the Notre Dame phenom would be a steal for the Commanders if he fell to them at No. 11. There may not be a more polarizing player in the draft than Stingley, a prep prodigy (he was the top-rated player in his high-school recruiting class) who, aside from a dominant freshman season that culminated in a National Championship, largely underachieved at LSU. Stingley boasts strong measurables and impressed at his recent Pro Day, but coming off a lost 2021 (a Lisfranc injury limited him to three games), his bust potential is higher than most. I have my reservations about Pickett, a high-floor, low-ceiling type in the mold of Andy Dalton, though if there’s anyone desperate enough to trade for him, it’s the post-Ben Roethlisberger Steelers. Here, the Steelers find an unlikely trade partner in their cross-state rival, swooping in to snatch the hometown favorite before the Saints step to the podium at No. 16. With two first-rounders in their arsenal, the Eagles can afford to move down a few spots.
16. New Orleans Saints (via Philadelphia and Indianapolis): Trevor Penning, T, Northern Iowa
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans): Drake London, WR, USC
19. New Orleans Saints (via Philadelphia): Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
20. Philadelphia Eagles (via Pittsburgh): Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Foiled by the Steelers, the Saints move on to other needs, plugging holes at tackle and wide receiver. Penning would account for the loss of free-agent defector Terron Armstead (now of the Miami Dolphins) while Olave provides insurance for injury-prone Michael Thomas, who hasn’t scored a regular-season touchdown since his record-breaking 2019. How wild is it that Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams were all teammates at one point? From Terry McLaurin to Curtis Samuel, Ohio State just keeps churning out pro receivers. London is almost the diametric opposite, both in skill set and physical appearance, of De’Vonta Smith, who the Eagles drafted a year ago in the first round. Big-bodied and physical (Mike Evans is his closest NFL comp), London is a bruiser who wields his hulking 6’4” frame like a samurai sword, while Smith is a more finesse receiver, relying on home-run speed and elite route-running. Either way, adding London to an offense already flush with playmakers should be a good litmus test for Jalen Hurts, who the Eagles have yet to determine as their franchise quarterback. The debate over who should be the first linebacker drafted is fascinating. Lloyd is bigger and arguably the superior athlete, though Nakobe Dean comes battle-tested, hardened and shaped by the crucible that is SEC football.
21. New England Patriots: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
22. New York Jets (via Green Bay and Las Vegas): Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
23. Arizona Cardinals: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
24. Dallas Cowboys: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
25. Buffalo Bills: Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
A Butkus Award recipient and unanimous All-American, Dean is the fourth member of Georgia’s 2021 National Championship squad to come off the board. While the core four of Dean, Travon Walker, Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt are all locks to go in the first round, we could see as many as six Bulldogs drafted Thursday night, with Lewis Cine and George Pickens potentially in that conversation. The Jets have been sniffing around A.J. Brown (currently at an impasse in contract negotiations with Tennessee), who shares many of the same traits as Burks, a sturdy, 225-pound enforcer with downfield chops and a fearlessness born from playing in college football’s toughest conference. Karlaftis falling to 24 would be a dream scenario for the Cowboys after having Randy Gregory desert them in free agency. Despite recent mocks connecting Buffalo to Iowa State standout Breece Hall, the Bills under GM Brandon Beane are too well-run to make the rookie mistake of drafting a running back in the first round. Instead, look for them to shore up their secondary with Booth, a ball-hawking 21-year-old coming off a breakout 2021 that saw him ascend to all-conference status in the ACC.
26. Tennessee Titans: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
28. New York Jets (via Green Bay): Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via Miami and San Francisco): Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
30. Kansas City Chiefs: Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
32. Detroit Lions (via L.A. Rams): Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
In an earlier incarnation of this mock, I had Kansas City trading up for a receiver, but I see no need if Dotson is still available in the late first round. We know the Chiefs put a premium on speed, and while he’s no substitute for Tyreek Hill, Dotson is plenty fast, running in the low 4.4s at last month’s NFL Combine. With Frank Clark seemingly in steep decline (his 4.5 sacks last year were his fewest since 2015) and Melvin Ingram still weighing his options in free agency, it would be a failure for Kansas City to leave the draft without a difference-making pass-rusher. Dotson’s college teammate, Arnold Ebiketie, certainly fits that bill. The most interesting pick of the first round may be the very last one. With another pick at 34, the Lions could easily trade out of that selection if a team comes calling. The Seahawks and Falcons would have incentive to move up—both face uncertainty at quarterback. Then again, so do the Lions. If they don’t pull the trigger at 32, don’t be surprised if Detroit drafts one of Desmond Ridder or Matt Corral at the top of the second round.
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