The Washington Commanders sit at 3-3 and that is just about where you would expect them to be so far, football analyst Eric Eager tells Kevin Sheehan, adding that there are some encouraging signs around the roster and he believes the team will likely "be in the thick of it for the balance of the season" and that's a reason to be hopeful.
That's the good news. Then the conversation turns to the Commanders' second-year quarterback Sam Howell's performance through the first six weeks. Eager tells Sheehan: "I think Sam Howell is a very good backup quarterback in the NFL."
Eager began his explanation of that point by pointing to the performance of veteran backup Tyrod Taylor (starting in place of the injured Daniel Jones for the Giants) on Sunday night against the Bills as "that's a guy that's not gonna lose you a game."
"I think Sam Howell can lose you a game, sacks and interceptions and things like that," Eager continued. "But he can win you a game, too. Which I think is very characteristic of the guy that he was preceded by in Talor Heinicke. I don't know if he's a long-term answer. Sack rates are incredibly stable year-to-year, it's hard to shake that.
"And so, if I'm Washington I'm, obviously, looking to a different place with that position. But as far as a bridge to the future while you're trying to figure out whether or not you want to continue the course with Ron Rivera, possibly move to somebody like Eric Bieniemy or something completely different, I think that he's been fine."
Before we go any further, who is Eager? Well, he is a football analyst (with a Ph.D. in mathematical biology) who was formerly running research and development Pro Football Focus and is now a VP of SummerSports, a quantitative analysis site and attempting to create precision in NFL player scouting and roster management.
And a big part of the reason Eager comes to this conclusion is because of the number of times Howell gets sacked, which for NFL offenses are drive-killers and can be game deciders.
After getting sacked five times in Sunday's win over the Falcons, Howell has been brought down 34 times (for a loss of 215 yards) on the season and is on pace to shatter the record for most sacks in a season with 96. Washington's passer is well on pace to eclipse the record 76 times David Carr was sacked in 16 games during the 2002 season in just 13 games.
Eager is making his call on Howell's sack rate this season as a long-term projection because unlike touchdown rates and interception rates that can vary from year to year, the sack rate can stay pretty stable.
Quantitatively, when looking at a play's expected points (a metric that weighs how valuable each individual play can be) each sack earns the defense about two points, Eager said. "So if you're like Sam Howell and you're taking five [sacks] a game, that's 10 points. You almost need to get two touchdowns to make up for that relative to league average stuff so that's how hard it is," he added.
Interceptions are only worth four points and can be more random with tipped passes and defenders dropping easy catches, Eager said, adding that traditionally the footballing world has undervalued how devastating sacks can be to winning games and that we too often see that as an offensive line sack when it is also very much about the quarterback avoiding sacks.
"It's just one of those things that we don't talk about enough," Eager said of the importance of sacks, "but it almost buries Sam Howell's ability to be a long-term starter for this team."
Other than the sacks, Eager said there are positive signs for Howell in his ability to be a very good thrower and a very good runner.
"So there's a lot to like," he added, "But I think if this was a different league, like let's say 25 years ago before the CBA where guys like Brad Johnson were NFL starters, Super Bowl starters and the top five picks in the draft were all being paid $50 million guaranteed like Sam Howell would be a legitimate starter candidate. The problem is the alternative to Sam Howell are guys that are making $10 million a year which is Caleb Williams and Drake Maye and guys like that.
"And that's why you just simply haven't seen the lower-tier guys, Washington saw one with Kirk Cousins a few years ago a very good quarterback, but for the most part teams just see that alternative of 'If we move into the Top 5 we can get a quarterback who makes hardly any money with all of the upsides.
"I think he's a very good backup option and a guy that is going to be a very positive player in this league from that perspective. It's not all bad and that's why this team is 3-3 and the offense can oftentimes look pretty good."
But all is not lost just yet. As if Howell is able to fix his high sack rate, Eager said, "I think we're in business."
Howell likely slipped to the fifth round for the same reason Justin Fields fell out of the top five picks in the draft because "the pressure to sack conversion was simply not good enough," when weighing it against his athletic ability and his accuracy.
"If he can fix that, and it's a very hard thing to fix, if he can fix that I think they're in business, for sure," Eager said of Howell and the Commanders.
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