Even before he was awarded the Heisman Trophy, Kevin Sheehan was a big believer in LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and his potential to be a solid NFL passer and potential No. 2 overall pick by the Washington Commanders.
But, Darren, a listener to the Kevin Sheehan Show, wrote that Daniels' electric game tape has blinded Sheehan from paying attention to "some of the key analytic numbers that don't bode well" for the QB at the NFL level.
Specifically, the pressure-to-sack number – which Sheehan points out is high for Daniels, USC quarterback Caleb Williams and UNC quarterback Caleb Maye. Daniels' intermediate throw level – 10.5 percent of his throws – is a small sample and the PFF grade on those throws was average.
Darren wrote, "You mentioned these things previously and you seem to be blowing them off as unimportant."
For Sheehan, he believes that sometimes the numbers don't tell the complete picture and sometims you don't see the complete picture that numbers can provide because you are really mesmorized by the really good suff.
But on the pressure-to-sack ratio – which measures the rate of pressure a QB is under resulting in a sack – which is different than sack rate - number of sacks per dropback. "In essence, the [pressure-to-sack ratio] is a measurement of a quarterback under pressure to avoid sacks," Sheehan said, adding that the statistical football community is now able to properly quantify sacks as drive killers as they had in years past.
The number for Daniels last year was 20.2 percent for 2023, meaing one out of five times he is pressured he is sacked. Williams' number was 23 percent and Maye was 19.6 percent. These are all pretty close and are not vavorable numbers and can be indicators for a lot of evaluators that college quarterbacks could have the problem at the NFL level, Sheehan said.
"The short coming with this stat," Sheehan continued. "....all sacks are not the same, but they're viewed the same in the context of this stat."
Why? Because a sack for a loss of one yard when the quarterback escapes the pocket and extneds a play is not the same as a quarterback sacked in the pocket for an eight yard loss.
Sheehan looked at the averaged lost yards for the Draft quarterbacks and these were the results:
- Michigan's JJ McCarthy's average was 8.05 yards lost per sack
- Williams' average was 7.82 yards lost per sack
- Maye's average was 4.48 yarrds lost per sack
- Daniels' average was 4.36 yards lost per sack
Sheehan explains his big takeaway from these numbers on the audio player above!
