The Washington Commanders drafted Sam Howell with the 144th overall pick (Round 5) in the 2022 NFL Draft. And while fan expectation of the second-year man is high, modern history tells us that the odds of Howell developing into somebody who can really contribute as an NFL passer are small.
Now, that doesn't mean it can't happen. But if it does, it will have been an unlikely turn of events. Howell developing into the long-term answer at quarterback for the Washington Commanders is a massive longshot, Kevin Sheehan said, but that doesn’t mean the second-year QB can’t beat the odds.
"For the most part you draft a quarterback fifth-round or later you're done, you have no chance," Sheehan said. "That quarterback is not going to be, in this century, a big-time starting quarterback unless his name was Tom Brady."
Pointing to some analysis from Ben Standig, 74 quarterbacks were taken between Rounds 4 - 7 between the years 2010 and 2021. Of those 74, six have started more than 11 games at QB and only three have started more than 30 games: Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, and Dak Prescott.
Sheehan reiterates that just two out of the 74 quarterbacks in this sample have turned into top half of the league producers (and how good Cousins is remains an open debate and a sour subject in these parts), "but not necessarily franchise-altering quarterbacks."
"It's not that I am dead-set against Sam Howell, giving him a chance, thinking that there's no chance," Sheehan said. "I've just expressed... the longshot nature based on the history of his draft position. It just would be a total outlier if Sam Howell developed into a true five to 10-year answer at the position."
Of course, Sheehan added that Howell has the big arm, has mobility, seems super smart, is a team guy, and "there are reasons to be more than just hopeful, but be at least slightly optimistic... but for the most part this is a wing and a prayer."
"If it happens it will be that proverbial diamond in the rough," Sheehan added. "Doesn't mean it won't happen! Doesn't mean, by the way, that he can't develop into something less than a franchise quarterback, but he'll still be good enough for a few years to make this team a competitive playoff contending team."
Listen to the full take from Sheehan including all of the reasons Howell could be successful in Washington on the player above.
Follow @BenKrimmel for more.
Keep up with The Team 980 via:
Audacy App | Online Stream | Twitter | Facebook | Instagram
Related
Related
