There are so many stats out there to evaluate all the quarterbacks in the NFL Draft, and former player Brian Mitchell says even with everything, don't believe much of what you hear or read when it comes to pick conjecture, because no one knows.
But WaPo's Sam Fortier did a story this week from something Dan Quinn told him in Indy at the Combine, from a time he was watching tape with former Packers GM Ron Wolf where Wolf was watching how competitive a QB was after throwing a pick – 'an imperfect metric, but something I wonder what Wolf would have seen if he was looking at this year's class.'
Fortier talked to Kevin Sheehan about it on Wednesday, and Fortier also took a look at the film of all 47 picks thrown by Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, and Drake Maye in 2023 to glean what he saw, which led to roughly 17 or 18 that had data to extrapolate.
Who was the most competitive?
"It's clearly Jayden Daniels, and I think that what we're talking about here is very similar to the conversation about his running style and the hits that he takes, where you hope the risk pays off with the reward," Fortier said. "If you look at it, he just pursues the ball. He throws a pick and he's sprinting there. Obviously his speed helps him out in that regard, but the man does not shy away from hitting. JJ and Drake, neither of those guys have a career tackle in college football, and Jayden has five. He doesn't mind putting his head down trying to wrap up, and it's impressive; you could say that if he does that in the league, he could get hurt, so there's definitely an upside and a downside here, but it's just fun watching Jayden Daniels play football because he just leaves it all out there every single play."
You now wonder if Quinn did the same and what he thought maybe about what he saw, and scouts the same way based on what coaches may have told those QBs, but one thing we do know is Daniels is 'an aggressive competitor' according to his college coach.
Okay, cool, so let's get to the draft itself: Sheehan and Fortier agree that this year might be the leanest in terms of info leaking out from the Commanders, so it's all conjecture – reckless, 'informed,' or otherwise – as to what's going to happen at No. 2.
So how much can we really believe the Commanders like Daniels at No. 2?
"Connecting the dots makes sense to me, and I think that like if they take Jayden Daniels, then you have to be happy about that. I think he's a very talented kid who could have a great future in the league," Fortier said.
"But I'm more at the point where I'm just saying I don't know. I would be extremely surprised if it were JJ McCarthy, but I really do think it could be Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. I acknowledge that Adam Schefter has been around the league a lot longer than I have and broken a lot bigger stories than I have, but I don't know."
Fortier does believe the Commanders may not know for sure yet, even if they have an idea.
"I wouldn't be surprised at this point. Maybe you're strongly leaning one way or the other and wonder if they can check this final box on the Top 30 visit, I think that's possible, but you're pretty far along in the draft process to not know at all who the guy is gonna be," Sam said. "I could see them not having written a name on the draft board up in the facility, but I'm sure the four guys that were at these pro days have had these conversations. Those guys have undoubtedly talked about this to an exhaustive extent, but I would not be surprised if they haven't written down a guy, or said, hey, we have this guy locked in. I would just be surprised if all four of them don't have a strong preference already."
So all Fortier can give is his projection based on what he has seen and previous proclivities, so…
"I don't know as much as, as all the quarterback experts or former NFL QBs, but from the people I've talked to, I think that Jayden is the most pro-ready and he's explosive, and Drake probably has the highest ceiling long-term, and I don't get why you would maybe split the difference if you go with JJ McCarthy," Sam said. "I know that some people might disagree with the way that I look at him there, but in the conversations I've had, admitting that no one knows anything or there's a lot of informed speculation and very few people know something, I just would still be very surprised by a JJ McCarthy pick at No. 2."
And that said, he has a hard time seeing the Commanders trading down, and even then not past No. 4, and his guess is Drake Maye.
"My guess is Maye in part because if you're going to take a quarterback in this league, if you're going to try to be a quarterback-centric team and take yourself out of the quarterback market, you take a swing on the guy that potentially could have the highest upside," Fortier said. "I know that there are some concerns with his mechanics and footwork, but it seems to me that with the arm he has and some of the things he can do, that he's a really powerful prospect."
