CHICAGO (WBBM NEWSRADIO) -- The Chicago Bears (6-7) face the Minnesota Vikings (6-7) Sunday in what is expected to be a make-or-break game for either team late in the season. Jeff Joniak offers his Keys to the Game.
OFFENSE
Mitch Trubisky has breathed new life into a deeply frustrating season. His efficient play since re-entering the lineup has including a high completion percentage, better first half touchdown production and a 30.3 points/game scoring average.
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor started his play-calling journey in Week 10 against the Vikings, and it produced just 13 points without David Montgomery and with Nick Foles suffering a fourth-quarter hip injury. They were also just 2-of-13 on 3rd and 4th down, and that statistic alone must be dramatically improved against the league’s fifth-best 3rd down defense.
Montgomery is on a tear, with runs of 57 and 80 yards the last three weeks fueling an NFL-high 7.38 yards/carry average. His production and commitment to it is setting up Trubisky’s play action, bootleg, RPO game.
The Vikings' defense knocked Foles 11 times in week 10, so the newly constructed offensive line must be ready for anything from Minnesota Coach Mike Zimmer’s defense, which doesn’t have a premier pass rusher, and will likely be without its top linebacker Eric Kendricks (calf).
A young Vikings secondary is getting solid play out of cornerback Cameron Dantzler, and while first round cornerback Jeff Gladney has been tagged for 6 touchdown passes and is one of the most highly targeted pass defenders in the league, he holds his own. The duo are growing into their roles. Still, this is an opportunity for veterans like Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller to get the chains moving, and for the speed of Darnell Mooney after the catch to pile up some yards. The Vikings are 22nd in giving up yards after the catch.
As the Bears approach the red zone, the Vikings' defense gets stingy. In addition to their 3rd down excellence, the Vikings are tied for 4th in the league in red-zone touchdown efficiency. They have allowed only 8 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for third. The Vikings also lead the league with 7 of their 11 interceptions coming inside their 30-yard line. Protecting the ball is critical so as to not leave points on the field.
DEFENSE
"Second verse, same as the first" is a great way to describe how the Bears have to contain NFL touchdown leader Dalvin Cook. Chuck Pagano laid it out for his defense this week: Discipline. Gap integrity. Violently tearing off blocks. Running to the ball with a sense of urgency and passion. “It ought to sound like BB’s off a tin can,” Pagano said. I love the sensory description for a defense that has consistently quieted the Cook storm.
Getting schemed-up pressure on Kirk Cousins creates an opportunity for big plays, including on 3rd down. The Bears have permitted the most third-down yardage in the league and allowed Cousins to convert 8 of his 15 third downs in week 10. Gary Kubiak’s offense is tied for the fewest third down attempts in the NFL with Seattle, so they are constantly moving the ball.
The interior of the Vikings' offense line has struggled with pressure the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. For the season, the Vikings guards have been charged with 11.5 sacks in 13 games. Akiem Hicks played only a half of game snap-wise in week 10 due to a hamstring, and his presence will be a challenge for the Vikings.
Without the pressure, Cousins will use play action and bootlegs to find two outstanding and productive receivers in rookie Justin Jefferson and veteran Adam Thielen. They have 87 combined first downs and 18 touchdowns. For Thielen, all 11 of his touchdowns have come in the red zone. Throw in a healthy tight end in Irv Smith Jr. and the Vikings are dangerous all over the field. Smith did not play against the Bears in the first meeting but is coming off his best game against the Bucs.
With injury concerns in the Bears secondary, look for the Vikings to test the corners and slot defenders with matchups they feel will give them an advantage. That’s why the pass rush, the tackling and slowing down Dalvin Cook with a unit wide focus is so imperative.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Cairo Santos has made all but three of his 51 kicks, while Minnesota’s Dan Bailey is suffering in a streak of 7 misses in his last 10 kicks. His return this week was sketchy, but Zimmer sticks with the veteran he knows and trusts. His patience, however, is being tested.
Cordarrelle Patterson torched what at the time was the league’s sixth-best kick coverage unit for a 104-yard return touchdown in week 10, sending Zimmer into a rage. It is unlikely the Bears star will get many significant opportunities for a clean return. There is a lot of pressure on Bailey, so maybe that will effect even the slightest mistake that Patterson can pounce on.
Patrick O’Donnell continues to have an impactful season punting the ball and creating field position with inside-the-20 gems, downed punts, and causing fair catches. The Vikings are getting next to nothing in the return game with a league worst 49 total punt return yards. The Bears want to keep it that way.
INTANGIBLES
Both teams have learned how to play in tight games with a combined 18 this season decided by one score or less. The Bears are 5-5, the Vikings are 5-3. This is not the game for last minute shopping for points. Strike early, strike often, and don’t save your best for last.
Lastly, this is basically a wildcard “stay alive” game. Winner leverages a meaningful game in week 16, still needing to win out and get help in the standings. Leave town with an 8th loss, and it becomes anything but a labor of love with considerable analysis and dread.
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