The Bruins and Hurricanes have now played five games in this first-round series, and Boston has not outscored Carolina at 5-on-5 play in any of them.
That is not a recipe for postseason success. The Bruins won Games 3 and 4 because they decisively won the special teams battle, scoring four power-play goals and a shorthanded goal and going a perfect 10-for-10 on the penalty kill.
Special teams can be fickle, though. Some nights you might not get the calls, like the Bruins didn’t on Tuesday. A previously hot power play can go cold, like the Bruins’ did on Tuesday. A talented opponent might eventually find a way to break through on the power play, like the Hurricanes did on Tuesday.
That’s why you need to have a strong 5-on-5 foundation you can rely on. In the regular season, the Bruins generally did. They ranked seventh in the NHL in 5-on-5 goal differential.
In Carolina, though, the Bruins have run into the team that ranked third, and that has now outscored Boston 12-6 at 5-on-5 in this series following the Hurricanes’ 5-1 win on Tuesday.
The underlying numbers aren’t quite so bad for the Bruins. They’ve had 51.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, 53.6% of shots on goal, and 53.4% of expected goal, according to Natural Stat Trick.
In the regular season, you might chalk up a stretch like this to some bad luck and patiently wait for the actual goal numbers to fall in line with the expected goals and other numbers.
The Bruins cannot afford to think that way in a short series, though. They don’t have time to be patient. They are now one loss away from elimination. If they are going to extend and ultimately win this series, they need to produce better results at 5-on-5, and they cannot rely on a simple change in fortune to do the trick.
The crux of the Bruins’ problems is a familiar one. They are not getting enough offense from forwards not named Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron or David Pastrnak.
The three of them have combined for four goals and five assists at 5-on-5 in the series. The rest of the Bruins’ forwards have combined for one goal and three assists.
Bruce Cassidy reunited the “Perfection Line” late in Game 2 because none of his lines were generating enough offense at that point. Doing so at least gave him one line that could threaten Carolina’s stingy defense. In 28:37 of even-strength time with that line on the ice, the Bruins have outscored the Hurricanes 4-1 and outshot them 22-10.
That line didn’t score on Tuesday, but it did create chances, even while dealing with the Jordan Staal line. That’s more than you can say about the other three lines. Through two periods, the Bruins were outshooting Carolina 9-4 with the first line on the ice, but getting outshot 16-7 with any other combination of forwards on the ice. The Bruins finally tilted the ice a bit in the third and racked up some shots, but they were already down 4-0 at that point.
The numbers for the Bruins’ middle-six forwards are downright hideous. Charlie Coyle and Jake DeBrusk have each put up a few special teams points, but neither has anything at even strength yet. Coyle is a minus-4 at 5-on-5, DeBrusk a minus-5.
Taylor Hall is a team-worst minus-6 at 5-on-5. He has two even-strength points and three points total in the series. Erik Haula: two points, minus-4. He had zero shots on goal Tuesday. Craig Smith still doesn’t have a single point, at 5-on-5 or otherwise. Trent Frederic started the series on the third line, but got benched. Tomas Nosek moved up to replace him, only to get benched himself on Tuesday.
“I think Bergy’s line dominated, whoever they were against,” Cassidy said after Tuesday’s loss. “…They were going. At the end of the day, you need the guys behind them following. That’s what we’re looking at, that sort of middle of the order, whatever you want to call it. They can bring more offensively. If not, they have to be real tight defensively. Then get the job done at the other end.”
If you want to bring the defense into it, the Matt Grzelcyk-Brandon Carlo pairing sticks out like a sore thumb. The Bruins have been outscored 4-0 with them on the ice. Grzelcyk added to his rough series with a turnover leading up to the Hurricanes’ first goal and two penalties on Tuesday. He may find himself as a healthy scratch if Hampus Lindholm is able to return for Game 6.
Lindholm’s return would help. Perhaps the Bruins will get on the right side of the special teams equation again on Thursday. Maybe their goalie -- Cassidy hasn’t yet announced a starter -- will steal a game. Cassidy might try to strike gold with another line shuffling.
But regardless of who’s in, who’s out and who’s playing where, it’s hard to imagine the Bruins’ season lasting much longer if they don’t get more 5-on-5 contributions from forwards other than Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak.
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