A shift could be coming to the electoral map on Tuesday. Iowa, a state that's been solidly for former President Donald Trump twice now, may now possibly go to Vice President Kamala Harris.
A surprising poll released over the weekend has Harris leading in a state most pundits believed was comfortably red. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has Harris leading Iowa by 3 points, 47% to 44%.
The same poll in September had Trump enjoying a 4-point lead.
"It's very surprising. I mean, Trump had been well ahead in Iowa. And this latest poll comes out over the weekend says that she's ahead by 3.1 percentage points," political analyst Marc Sandalow told KCBS Radio.
It's also quite a shift for a state that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
The poll, however, could be an outlier. Other polls have Trump leading in the Hawkeye state, including a recent Emerson College poll that had him up by 10 points.
"It could just be that their sample is a little bit off," said Sandalow. "You know, it has a three-and-a-half plus or minus statistical margin of error. So they're not necessarily saying for sure that Harris would win."
Most other polls show Harris and Trump in near-dead heat on the eve of Election Day.
"The fact is, with the polls as close as they are right now, anybody who tells you they know with confidence what's going to happen is speaking from their gut. They're not speaking with their head, because at this point, no one knows," Sandalow said. "It's very possible if the pollsters are undercounting Trump voters, as they did in 2016 and they did in 2020, that he's going to win and he'll win handily. If they corrected that problem, then she will win."