For decades, Democrats counted on young voters to turn out for their presidential candidates. This year, it looks like former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP candidate, may be gaining an edge with them.
According to an Axios report, the 77-year-old “appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements.”
In contrast, 81-year-old President Joe Biden’s relationship with America’s youth has been wavering in part due to challenging economic circumstances and the Israel-Hamas War. If Trump bests him with young voters in November, it would be the first time a Republican had won that demographic since former President George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in 1988.
“The prospect of Trump coming within striking distance of winning young voters – which shows up in poll after poll – would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the cycle,” said Axios.
Last month, poll results from Quinnipiac University found that Trump had a slight edge on Biden among voters age 18 to 29 at 48% to 47%. He also had a lead among 30 to 44-year-olds at 48% compared to 45% to Biden.
This April, New York Times/Siena College poll results found that 72% of voters age 18 to 29 believed the country was going in the wrong direction, as well as 69% of voters age 30 to 44.
In the younger cohort, 45% said they would vote for Trump, compared to 47% who said they would vote for Biden and 8% who were undecided. When the candidate pool was widened to include independent candidates Jill Stein, Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., that narrowed to 38% for both Trump and Biden
Among the older cohort, 44% said they would vote for Trump, compared to 46% who would vote for Biden and 10% who were undecided. When the pool was widened to include the independent candidates, 38% said they would vote for Trump and 42% said they would vote for Biden.
The Economist/YouGov poll results from this month were far more favorable for Biden. According to that poll, 46% of the 18 to 29-year-old cohort said they would vote for Biden, compared to 24% who said they would vote for Trump. For the 30 to 44-year-old group, 43% said they would vote for Biden and 34% said they would vote for Trump.
“The polls could be wrong. Polling younger voters has become more difficult in recent years as answering landlines – a traditional method of polling outreach – is an archaic practice for today’s youth,” said Axios.
Audacy reported in April about Biden’s uphill battle to woo younger voters. Citing a poll from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School, we reported that Biden led Trump by eight percentage points.
“That 8 percentage point margin is much smaller than at this point in the 2020 election,” POLITICO explained. “At that time, Biden was leading Trump by 23 percentage points among young people.”
Last month, Audacy also reported on a “recent Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News poll explored just how different their views are from millennials, Gen X and baby boomers.
“There is profound generational change regarding what values are important,” said the poll. This is showcased by four different values-related topics respondents were asked about: patriotism, whether America is the best place to live, belief in god or religion, and having children.
Axios reported that, as we get closer to the election, Trump is changing up his stance on some policies to “cater to the preferences of younger voters” even if they aren’t in line with the rest of his party. One example is his switch-up on the popular social media app TikTok, which has ties to China.
“After proposing a TikTok ban during his presidency, Trump baffled conservative China hawks by coming out against such a move earlier this year,” said Axios. He posted his first TikTok video this month.
Trump has also pivoted to a more welcoming stance on cryptocurrency since he was in office. At the same time, Axios said “SEC chair Gary Gensler has become one of crypto's biggest villains,” during the Biden administration. Per the outlet, crypto is most frequently embraced by young men – a group that is also becoming more conservative in the U.S. Another ecomic policy Trump has proposed that could appeal to young voters is a cut of taxes on tips.
Biden has also made efforts to appeal to young voters, including his push for student debt cancellation and support of attempts to codify abortion protections following the Dobbs v. Jackson U.S. Supreme Court decision.