LAS VEGAS (AP) — The odds indicate the true NBA Finals will be a potential Western Conference showdown between the defending champion Thunder and a Spurs team that has had its way with Oklahoma City this season.
But the numbers also say as the NBA postseason begins not to count out the Celtics, who are just two years removed from winning their record 18th championship.
OKC is a +120 favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook to become the first team since Golden State in 2018 to repeat as champion. San Antonio, which defeated the Thunder four out of five times in the regular season, is next at +450. Boston lurks close behind at +550.
Every other team carries odds of 10-1 or longer.
“The West team is going to be favored in the final unless there's a real shocker,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet. “We're assuming it's Oklahoma or San Antonio. Either of those two would be favored. Boston would have the best chance, I think, in the East, followed by the Knicks and then Detroit.”
David Lieberman, pro basketball lead at Caesars Sportsbook, expressed caution about assuming favorites would wind up in the NBA Finals.
“It should be pretty wide open this year, and I can see any of the top 3-5 seeds making a run in each conference," Lieberman said. "I expect several long, competitive series all the way through.”
Key Eastern players return
Jayson Tatum's earlier-than-expected return from an Achilles tendon tear sustained in last year's playoffs has made bettors believers of the Celtics. Boston was listed at 10-1 before his comeback, and 8.7% of the bets and 8.2% of the money at BetMGM are on the Celtics. That's behind only the Pistons in the Eastern Conference (10.2% of bets, 9.7% of the handle).
There is plenty of reason for optimism in Detroit with Cade Cunningham back after missing about three weeks because of a collapsed lung.
Even though the West is better and deeper, many bettors see value in the numbers in the East.
“The Detroit Pistons have been getting bet all year, and now with Cade Cunningham back and healthy, bets are coming in on them again," Lieberman said. "The top five seeds in the East have been pretty popular bets of late, so I think there is some belief in those teams outside of the Celtics.”
Lakers likely to be one and done
There was plenty of chatter about keeping an eye on the Lakers as a potential sleeper team in the West before Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) went down with injuries this month.
The BetMGM betting numbers reflect the low expectations for the Lakers. Los Angeles is listed at 125-1 to emerge from the West and 250-1 to win it all.
The fourth-seeded Lakers open the playoffs against No. 5 Houston. The Rockets are 8-1 favorites to win the series even without home-court advantage.
“The moment Luka got hurt, the chances of the Lakers making a deep run ended,” Marshall said. “Houston has been playing better, so I think that Lakers (have a) short stay. It's too bad because it was looking like they might be menacing for a while when all the hands were on deck.”
Home teams favored in play-in games
If the odds are correct, the four play-in tournament games Tuesday and Wednesday should come down to the final minutes.
Charlotte and the Los Angeles Clippers, each at 5 1/2 points, are the largest favorites at BetMGM.
The Hornets play Miami, with the winner facing Orlando or Philadelphia and an eventual matchup with top-seeded Detroit on the line. The 76ers are 1 1/2-point favorites over the Magic, with the winner of that game playing the Celtics.
In the West, the Clippers meet the Warriors for the right to play Portland or Phoenix and eventually advancing to play the Thunder. The Suns are 3 1/2-point favorites over the Trail Blazers, with the winner meeting the Spurs.
No tanking at this time of year
Marshall agreed with NBA Commissioner Adam Silver that tanking is a major problem for the league.
Whether some teams aren't giving it their all won't be a factor in the betting in the playoffs, unlike during the regular season.
“Actually, I kind of enjoyed it when you got these teams that weren't trying because you could try to go against them, although the oddsmakers were really making us pay with a lot of these numbers,” Marshall said. “It's really a disease in the NBA and they're trying to address, but it gets worse every year with the tanking stuff. As soon as a team sees they're out of the playoff picture, they try not to win.”
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