BUFFALO (WBEN) - Due to continued population loss in New York, the state is likely to lose one seat in the House of Representatives. According the Wall Street Journal, New York has lost 0.2% of its population over the course of the last decade, now in its fifth consecutive year of decline.
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report shared a potential redistricting scenario that would leave Western New York with less representation.
If the redistricting of New York comes to fruition as seen in the map above, that would mean an end to the state's 27th Congressional District, which is represented by Chris Jacobs.
"I don't understand why we would lose representation when other places in New York State seem to be gaining representation," said Nate McMurray, who has run multiple times for the seat in NY27.
McMurray said he's concerned about the idea of even less representation in Western New York, even though redistricting would potentially help the Democratic Party in the aggregate because the map would change from 19D-8R, to 23D-3R.
"I mostly care about the people of Western New York having a voice - that's what matters to me," McMurray continued. "Maybe on the aggregate it helps Democrats, but does it help Western New York? I think the answer is no."
Republican political strategist Carl Calabrese said this would simply be one more thing to disenfranchise the residents of NY27.
"NY27 has probably been one of the most chaotic congressional districts in the state, if not in the country, over the last several members of Congress, given all the turmoil that has occurred with that district and the length of time that they've gone without representation," said Calabrese.
Both McMurray and Calabrese are worried that the continued trend of redistricting to gain numbers, by either party, will lead to less and less competition at the ballot box.
"I'm also worried that it's creating another set of safe seats," said McMurray. "You have a Democratic seat and you have a Republican seat, and that's dangerous for a lot of different reasons. It's dangerous because it allows people not to really run, or not to be challenged, both Democrats and Republicans.
"What I would like to see is more balanced seats where you have a 50/50 of Democrats and Republicans in each of the districts - not just our district or here in Western New York - but across NY27 and across all of New York State," he continued.
Calabrese noted that this kind of redistricting, also known as gerrymandering, has been a trend nationwide.
"Districts are tending to become more and more solidified between the two parties," Calabrese began. "You have pretty safe Republican districts and pretty safe Democrat districts, and not a whole lot of competitive districts anymore.
We reached out to Jacobs' office, but they decided to decline comment "til actual redistricting maps are drawn."
The Census Bureau is expected to complete apportionment numbers for congressional seats by the end of April, but it's likely that state data for redistricting won't be finished until August.
