Congressional incumbents favored to win in Western New York

Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - As you go to the polls on Tuesday for Election Day, Western New York's three Congressional seats will be contested. However, local analysts believe the incumbents will have little trouble being re-elected to Washington, D.C.

"At the moment, it certainly seems like heading into [Tuesday] that the incumbents should feel pretty safe in their ability to keep their seats" said UB's Colin Dowling of Tim Kennedy (D, NY-26), Nick Langworthy (R, NY-23) and Claudia Tenney (R, NY-24). "I know there's certainly Kennedy. I think with what all the national polls and his own incumbency advantage and work he's done in the area given the advantage to Democrats in this election, that it looks like we're seeing that he should feel pretty safe and secure. But even the Republicans in the area, it would take a pretty big blue wave to knock them down from where they are, and so I think they should feel pretty pretty good about their chances, even if Republicans nationally might not be in the same spot that they are."

Dowlins says the same applies for Tenney and Langworthy.

"He should feel pretty safe, in in my opinion, in the sense that it would take a pretty big swing and a pretty high Democratic turnout. And certainly, there has polls have suggested that Democrats are more enthusiastic about this election, and that sometimes translates into higher turnouts," Dowling said. "About Tenney, if her seat goes the way to her challenger right to the Democrats, then that means it's been a really bad day for Republicans overall."

Dr. Lisa Parshall of Daemen University says the incumbents have quite the edge.

"Their name familiarity. I would think that the Republicans are facing a little bit of the downward drag of the economy, and President Trump's polling right now is also running at the lowest it's ever been, but again, given their well-established identities within the the community and within their districts, as well as the way the districts are are structured in terms of the number of registered voters, I wouldn't anticipate the congressional races here in Western New York would have any major surprises," said Parshall with WBEN.

She says there's one additional obstacle for challengers Dennis Hannon (NY-26), Aaron Gies (NY-23) and Alyssa Ellman (NY-24).

"There's so many national issues that are taking attention away from the local aspects of the race. So this is really an election year where we have a lot on the ballot because we've moved some of the state and local races to the even years, and a lot of focus on again the national politics. Even though President Trump is not on the ballot, the kind of focus on issues for the media and for the public is on national issues rather than local ones," Parshall explained.

Vic Martucci of Masiello, Martucci, Hughes and Kulpa says an upset in any of the races aren't likely.

"It's really difficult this late in the game, particularly when you look at the early voting statistics," said Martucci with WBEN. "Early voting in Erie County, for example, is up 70% over the last year, and in New York State, it's up over 100%. So a lot of people have voted already. That's No. 1. No. 2, and I haven't seen any polling in these three congressional races, but if you look at the polling, for example, in the statewide races, there are very few undecideds at this point. So the only chance they would have is if, for some reason, there are significant more Democrats voting than Republicans in the Tenney and Langworthy districts as a percentage of the electorate than their party affiliation represents, and same is true in the Kennedy district. You would have to have significantly more Republicans as a percentage of the electorate than what is normally associated with the registration. Turnout would be the only way I could see for a challenger pulling an upset in one of those three districts."

Polls across Erie County at 6 a.m. and remain open until 9 p.m.