Focus already shifting to race for Erie County Executive next November

Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - With Election Day 2026 now officially in the books, the focus for local political leaders is already shifting to next November and the race for Erie County Executive.

Mark Poloncarz is readying for his 16th and final year serving the people of Erie County as county executive. He continues to reiterate the fact he will not be running for a fifth term in office, but has not given any inclination as to his future outside of county government.

However, Poloncarz knows just because he's entering his final year in office doesn't mean the job is finished.

" I've always said as an elected official, it's not always easy to determine how successful you've been. But if you can say I left the community, the municipality or, for myself, the county in better shape than when I took it, then I've been successful. And I think among every measure possible, I've been successful as county executive," said Poloncarz on Tuesday night. "There's thousands of more jobs, the unemployment rate is at the lowest rate, the tax rate's at the lowest rate. We've been very successful. The parks are gleaming, our libraries are strong. I'm very proud of what we've done, and my goal over this final year is to ensure that we continue that. And when I leave office on Dec. 31, 2027, the next county executive will walk in with a clean slate, but knowing that Erie County is in good shape."

When looking ahead to next year's race for county executive, Poloncarz envisions a number of candidates - especially among Erie County Democrats - that will be vying for his seat as part of a primary election.

"Primaries are good. I had to run in a primary for County Comptroller in my first race, so I understand that sometimes that makes you a better candidate," Poloncarz told WBEN. "I like all the people that are potentially candidates for the Democratic Party. I consider them friends, but of course, I have my Deputy County Executive Lisa Chimera, who I'm very supportive of. But, as often is the case, it's up to the people, and I think they're going to have a strong determination as to who the next county executive is going to be. But if we continue the strong work my administration's done and that individual wants to continue in the tradition of what we've done, I feel very confident a Democrat will get elected next year."

While Poloncarz does not want to endorse any particular individual or candidate for the job, at this time, he does express full confidence in Chimera, who has served as deputy county executive in Erie County since October 2022.

"Lisa, I think, would be great as county executive. There's other candidates that I think would be great as county executive. But Lisa is my deputy county executive, and I chose her for a reason," Poloncarz explained. "If something bad had happened to me, if I got hit by a bus, someone's got to walk in the place of me. And I always felt she was capable of doing that as being a council member, a legislator, and now [deputy] county executive."

Local political experts can also see Chimera being set up to be the favorite on the Democratic ballot for county executive.

"It's clear to me just watching it that Lisa Chimera is the party choice, the leadership choice, Mark Poloncarz's choice," said Republican political strategist Carl Calabrese. "She's raising money already, just look at how many times she's being featured now at public events, speaking events, giving out awards and proclamations. They're really highlighting her, so I think she's their A-list candidate at this point."

Ken Kruly from Politics and Other Stuff says no matter who the candidates end up being - from both political parties - the rubber meets the road sometime early next year when petitions have to be filed and candidates have to get serious about a campaign.

"We're talking about the end of February for petition, so that's three or four months from now, it's going to have to move fast. Anybody who's interested not only has to put a campaign together, but also has to start raising money, and I really haven't seen any evidence of other candidates doing that," said Kruly in an interview with WBEN. "That's not to say that somebody might not join the field or might be able to self-fund and get into it a little bit later, but in terms of what's going on, the schedule and things like raising money are very important at this stage."

Another candidate that made a soft announcement to run for county executive in the past with WBEN is current Erie County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick. He says a more formal announcement for his campaign will likely come in the days ahead before Thanksgiving.

Calabrese feels if Hardwick does put his name in the contest, a possible two-way primary between him and Chimera may then start to look like the Buffalo Mayoral primary a year-and-a-half ago that featured, at least, four candidates contending for one political nomination.

"That may encourage other people, other town supervisors maybe who say, 'OK, I didn't cause a primary, there's already a primary. With maybe three candidates, maybe four candidates, who knows? Maybe I could win this thing with just 30% of the vote.' So if Kevin does decide to enter a race and create a primary, it might be possible that you see one or two other Democrats - be it somebody from the State Assembly or State Senate or town supervisor - say, 'I'm going to take a shot at this in a multi-candidate primary,'" Calabrese said.

One obstacle that could get in the way for some candidates and a possible run for county executive in Erie County is funding.

"Campaigns are getting very expensive, so it's a question of who can raise money and we're talking a seven-figure bankroll, at least, and that kind of narrows the field," Kruly noted. "I wouldn't want to close out the whole thing for now. It's still only early November, but things have to continue to move quickly. One of the legislators seems to indicate he's got some personal cash available from the sale of a business, so that might propel him into the Republican field. Beyond that, I think we just have to see where the money is and where the support is. Are the other Republicans in the county supporting them?"

If it ends up coming down to a Democratic primary for Erie County Executive, Hardwick admits it's not unfamiliar territory for him during a campaign.

"I would hope there wouldn't be a primary, but if there is a primary, I hope it'll be a primary geared towards the issues, the visions for the office, and it will leave a lot of the negative stuff behind. The history of these things, however, has been that that's not been the case," said Hardwick on Wednesday with Joe Beamer on WBEN. "Hopefully that doesn't happen, but if it does happen, I've been through this before. A lot of people say things about me and had to endure it, and my family's had to endure it. We know the territory."

Buffalo's Fillmore District Councilman Mitch Nowakowski, who also serves as a vice-chair of the Erie County Democratic Committee, says if there is a Democratic primary to take place, it's important the race doesn't become too much where the winning candidate ends up hobbling to Election Day and the general election.

"County executive is a big race, this county has over 900,000 people, so you know that's a very serious office that controls human services, storm response, road repair, and it's a very, very important job," Nowakowski said Wednesday during an appearance with Beamer on WBEN. "I'm going to be playing a role where I want this to be a really fair and open process, and Democrats to really come in from you know Cheektowaga, Amherst, City of Buffalo, Lackawanna, all the way down to Eden. Where is the committee? Where is the Democratic party to have a successful year next year?"

What are the odds that an Erie County Republican can run the gauntlet and earn the public's vote for county executive? Both Calabrese and Kruly acknowledge that given the bad night with Tuesday's election results, it will certainly complicate efforts of the party to find an A-list candidate for county executive.

"This is an open seat, and normally when there's an open seat when no incumbent is running, it's a little easier to attract quality candidates. So it'll be up to the Republican party leadership to take some steps in the next year to strengthen the party's organization, to strengthen the party's strategy, fundraising that then can be used to say to a potential candidate, 'Look, we've got the mechanisms in place, in terms of fundraising and grassroots organizations and strategy committees that can help you win this seat.' That's got to be the top priority for the Republican leadership over the next year," Calabrese said.

"It's very clear that the public, particularly a lot of Republicans, have rejected Donald Trump and MAGA. Whether the party can bounce back from that, it depends on the candidate," Kruly added. "And at the moment, no major candidate has stepped forward. So they may want to take a look at this whole thing and say, 'Maybe not this time.'"

So who might be the right fit for Erie County Republicans to make a run for the Rath Building in Downtown Buffalo? Calabrese has his own short list of candidates, but admits he doesn't know if anyone would have interest in a run.

"The first one that comes to mind: Sheriff [John] Garcia, who has won races countywide. That gets my attention right away. Somebody who's got a track record of being able to win in a Democrat county," Calabrese said. "Another name that would be on my list would be Senator Pat Gallivan. He won two or three races for Sheriff, so he's got a track record of not only winning State Senate elections, but Erie County Sheriff elections. The name I've heard dropped, although I doubt if he would be interested anymore, would be Chris Jacobs - a person who would have great appeal to moderate Democrats and Independents. Those are the three that come to my mind. Again, I have no clue if they're even even considering a run. But if I'm chairman of the party, I at least want to approach them and say, 'Is there any chance here?'"

Among other candidates on the Republican ballot for county executive next fall could all come from the Erie County Legislature: Frank Todaro, newly elected Ed Rath - grandson of the first Erie County Executive Edward Rath - as well as Lindsay Lorigo.