Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) Some polls have the presidential race out of reach for President Trump. Others have it much closer than many people think.
Republican strategist Carl Calabrese says don't discount the "shy Trump voter syndrome."
"Four years ago, Donald Trump underpolled by three or four points because people were reluctant to tell an anonymous pollster that they were going to vote for Donald Trump. If it was three or four points in 2016, given all of the turmoil and violence about expressing political views, I'll bet it's at least five points this year," said Calabrese with Masiello, Martucci, Calabrese and Associates.
Right now Joe Biden is ahead in nine battleground states, but in five of the nine, his lead is within the margin of error according to Calabrese. "In order for Trump to overtake him in the next three weeks, he has to do what he did 4 years ago;
get disciplined, get focused and get his message down. That's what I'm looking for."
ABC Political strategist Steve Roberts agrees that lying to pollsters is real. "I think it could be two or three percent of the electorate. But it's also true that the polls have been so consistent for so long that I wonder how many shy voters there are anymore," he said.
Roberts says Trump's base is 37-40%. He sees very little fragmentation in that. Still he says there's no doubt that the polls did not catch the shift to Trump four years ago.
"In 2016, Trump was a TV star. He was a novelty and people were voting for him based on very fragmentary information. Three and a half years later, every American has a very good sense of Donald Trump, positively and negatively. I think the election is far less fluid than it was three and a half years ago.
And Joe Biden is not the same demon, not the same target [as Hillary Clinton]," said Roberts.
