Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - No one knows which way the political stars will line-up next year when Rep. Brian Higgins leaves Congress, but the jockeying for position, on the Democratic side, is increasingly looking like a must watch sport.
"I'm really watching State Sen. Tim Kennedy in this," said analyst Jack O'Donnell of O'Donnell and Associates. "Not only is he a declared candidate, but he's raising money. According to the federal election commission, he is the only one who has opened an account."
"We also know that he is a prolific fundraiser."
At least two other prominent Democrats are seen as possible candidates in the race: Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz.
"I will tell you that I was with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries last week in Washington, and the only thing that he is really focused on is winning back the House, and that comes from having the resources to win races like this," noted O'Donnell.
Two different tests are coming up for Higgins' seat. First, a special election. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has to call it within 10 days of Higgins' formal resignation. The election would be held 70-to-80 days after, with the local parties picking the candidates.
But O'Donnell said even before that election, people will be petitioning to be on a June Primary ballot.
"That's when voters, more broadly, will have their say. Whoever party leaders choose for the special in April or May, is going to have to face a gauntlet in June, so I really think it's got to be someone who can go through both of those."
Whoever pursues a campaign will have to be committed.
"A congressional race is not something that you do in your off time. Even if you don't have to give up your seat, you have to give up your life. A congressional race really is a much different level of scrutiny and level of cost. The fact that Sen. Kennedy has already announced, shows how committed he is to being a candidate," O'Donnell said.
On the Republican side, there has been zero talk about the race. Congressional seats open so rarely that O'Donnell says local and national Republicans have to be looking at it.
"I think the Republicans really need to find a rock star if their going to make this competitive. And frankly, they couldn't find one to run for county executive, so I'm not sure they're going to find one to run for this seat," he said.
When will we know who's running for NY-26?
O'Donnell thinks a lot of this will play out in the next few weeks.
"I think we'll have a pretty clear indication of where this is going even before Congressman Higgins formally resigns," he said.
