WNY fall forecast looks seasonable

Buffalo, NY (WBEN) The calendar moves to fall, the trees begin to change colors, and we start to see the leaves turn. Meteorologist Andy Parker says we know that the next season has certainly begun.

Parker says WNY should see a seasonable start to fall. Parker says there's a Noreaster that will bring rain to the Atlantic coast, but should miss WNY. "We'll find that our overnight lows will start dipping further into the 50s overnight, maybe some 40s. But the daytime highs should recover to between 65 and 70 degrees, which is right around statistically average for us. So a pretty comfortable settling of September," says Parker. "The hint of October there will be some bounces, maybe around the third to the fifth. We'll see a dip, but nothing that indicates we're going to go below normal for any prolonged period of time. So right now, it looks like a nice transition is in the works from September into early October."

Parker says no surprises are in the first half of October. "The second half of October, the metrics that's still a month away, and those type of things, we will look for those bowling balls that come rolling across the nation, that really can draw down some of that colder air and provide us with an early season shot. But as of now, none of those bowling balls are presenting itself in the next coming weeks," explains Parker.

This winter, El Nino is churning in the Pacific, and Parker says that could affect how much snow we see in the winter. "Generally, when we look at El Ninos, the more sea surface temperature change that you get, the warmer that is, the more shift you will get in the jet stream, and that will usually bring us an active weather pattern, so the storm track will run through the center portion of the nation and much of the Great Lakes," says Parker. "What that brings us will all depend on the timing of the precipitation. We will still have cold pools of air that will drop out of Canada, but when those storm tracks connect with that cold pool, that's when we'll see the opportunity for snowstorms, it does not mean Western New York won't see snow. What it will likely mean is that we will see those storms come in in one form and then change, either start as snow and finish as rain, or start as rain and finish as snow," says Parker.

Winter comes December 21st.