Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Mickey Kearns? Ed Rath? Chris Jacobs?
None of the above.
It will be newcomer Chrissy Casilio-Bluhm who is introduced by the Erie County Republican Party as its choice for county executive during a press event Monday morning.
For various reasons, the more known names aren't in the race, and WBEN political analyst Carl Calabrese tell us it has, "Put the party in the position of really going to something unorthodox and that is someone who has never run for office, a new face."
So, how will that go?
It's not so much the lack of name recognition, says Calabrese, it's what goes along with it. The inability to raise much needed money. "That usually is a death knell to new people coming in to politics. Their inability to raise money."
The fact Casilio-Bluhm comes from a known family with some political heritage is a positive, Calabrese says. Her father is the longtime Clarence Town Supervisor and the family is well connected in the development community, two positives Calabrese notes.
Erie County Republican Party Chairman Michael Kracker told WBEN Saturday the party would be putting forth a 'fresh face', and that's exactly how Calabrese describes Casilio-Bluhm as a candidate. "She's a fresh face. This may be the year where the fresh face really attracts people's attention."
It's a lot to overcome, says Calabrese, but he notes, "It's unprecedented for a county executive to win a 4th term." Longtime Democratic County Executive Dennis Gorski failed to win a 4th term in a challenge from Joel Giambra in 1999.
Incumbents win more than 95 percent of the time, Calabrese emphasizes. But he adds, "They do lose."
What would it take for that to happen should Poloncarz be the victor in a Democratic primary?
Poloncarz enjoys some solid advantages that Calabrese points out. Name recognition and money in the bank are the first two items on the list. Then there is the fact the Democrats have 136 thousand more enrolled voters than the Republicans in Erie County.
Still, Calabrese notes, it can be done.
"When the public decides it's time for a change, all of those things I've mentioned … take a back seat," Calabrese said. Calabrese reminds us Poloncarz did not win his last election against Republican Lynn Dixon by an overwhelming vote.
Since that election, Calabrese says both the COVID pandemic and, more recently, the Buffalo blizzard, exposed a weakness of Poloncarz. "Mark Poloncarz exhibited part of his personality that was not very appealing."
Calabrese says beyond making her name known and raising money, Casilio-Bluhm and the GOP will need to expose an issue that hits the public's 'hot button'. In 1999, Calabrese says that issue was regionalism. In 2023, he says it may be focusing on economic development.
Another factor to consider, says Calabrese, is the primary battle Poloncarz is facing from fellow Democrat Nate McMurray. Will that race expose any weaknesses? "And even if he(McMurray) doesn't win," ponders Calabrese, will the race, "Produce a vote total that really does highlight the fact that shelf life is a factor?"
As Calabrese told us, "Time will tell."
