Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - While many are cringing at the arrival of colder air and the phrase 'lake effect' in the forecast, avid skiers and snowboarders are waiting with baited breath for the first significant snowfall that sets up local ski areas for opening up the trails.
Ski mountains out West are getting an early-season boost with a bomb cyclone and atmospheric rivers unleashing feet of snow in the Northwest And as a storm is bringing the first accumulating snow to elevated parts of the Northeast, ski resorts in Western New York will need to wait a bit longer.
The arrival of colder air and some lake effect snow led to a light covering on some of the slopes south of the Buffalo metro area Friday, but not yet enough to begin the snowmaking process and provide the base for beginning operations.
On a broad scale, some ski mountains could struggle with a lack of snowfall and long stretches of mild conditions this winter across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, AccuWeather forecasters say.
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok says this winter could be a repeat of last year's challenging conditions. "The mild weather will be dominant just like it was last winter," said Pastelok.
AccuWeather long-range experts say there could be more opportunities for snow across the East compared to last winter, including the traditionally busy holiday ski window between Thanksgiving and New Year's Day.
Mild spells throughout the winter could cause the snow to melt on the slopes, which can refreeze overnight and create icy conditions.
Many mountains and resorts across the East are outfitted with snowmaking equipment, so artificial powder could play a crucial role again this season. These conditions could lead to increased operating costs with the demand for more grooming and more artificial snow.
"We expect some issues in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast this winter with temperatures climbing above freezing during the day melting snow, then a refreeze at night that creates icy conditions on the slopes. Any rain on snow could cause big problems," Pastelok said. "Some mountains will likely spend more time and money making snow and grooming the slopes this winter."
Pastelok says northern New England and western New York could be the exception this year, with a forecast for fair or good conditions.
Polar vortex could help extend the ski season
AccuWeather long-range experts say an increased chance of a late-season, widespread polar vortex could allow bitterly cold air across much of the country and help extend the ski season at many mountains this winter.
"It could be everywhere that gets affected if we see a late-season polar vortex," Pastelok explained. "The Northeast and mid-Atlantic ski season could be saved late if this event occurs."
AccuWeather long-range experts say an uptick in opportunities for snow across parts of the East in February could also provide a late-season boost.
"Ski mountains love having the season extended into the spring, and that is a possibility," Pastelok said.
Recent snowfall has allowed a number of ski mountains in the Northwest and Rockies to open earlier than originally planned this month.
Pastelok says the weak La Niña and developing winter weather pattern will direct storms over this region on a regular basis throughout the season.
"Places like Colorado and Utah, and then across the Northwest, I think those are the best areas this winter," said Pastelok.
AccuWeather long-range experts say the only mountains in the West that may struggle to have frequent opportunities for snow will be northern Arizona and the southern stretch of the Sierra Nevada in California.
Pastelok also forecasts good conditions for much of the Midwest but warns that there could be some speed bumps throughout the season.
"During the midpart of the season, I'm concerned that a lot of systems track too far south, and we don't get into that significant snow, but it may be cold enough to maintain the snow they already have," he said.
