Just as states begin to drop mask mandates and a decline in COVID-19 infections indicates the pandemic could finally be ending in the U.S., the omicron variant may have found a way to stick around.
As of Tuesday, 3.8% of omicron variant cases identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were caused by the BA.2 strain, which was first identified in late January. According to NPR, this variant is 30% more contagious than earlier strains.
Already, the strain has surpassed the initial omicron variant in South Africa, where it was first detected, and caused a second omicron surge in Denmark, said the outlet. Cases have also fueled the ongoing outbreak in Hong Kong.
While vaccination and immunity from prior COVID-19 infections appears to protect people from BA.2, evidence indicates this strain is better at evading the immune system.
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“A lot of us were assuming that it was going to quickly take off in the United States just like it was doing in Europe and become the new dominant variant,” said Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health.
However, instead of fueling a new spike in cases, BA.2 has been spreading steadily. It has been detected throughout the U.S.
While it hasn’t caused a surge in cases in the U.S. yet, some experts think BA.2 has the potential to cause another wave of COVID-19.
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“If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.,” said Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation.
He said experts are “on the edge of our seats,” observing the spread of BA.2.
Even though the seven-day moving average of daily COVID-19 cases was down 43% as of Feb. 16, there were still more than 121,000 cases reported daily, as well as around 8,600 daily hospitalizations and a 2,021 seven-day moving average of new deaths.
Grubaugh said this BA.2 strain will most likely slow the decrease in omicron cases but doesn’t expect it to cause another spike since at least 76 percent of the U.S. population is at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19.
“There are going to be plenty of people getting sick and ending up on respirators and dying because of BA.2,” said Dr. Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, especially among the millions who still aren't vaccinated.
For people who do get infected with the BA.2 variant, antibody treatments for COVID-19 might be less effective.
Like Grubaugh, Luban believes BA.2 will extend the tail end of omicron, though he said another surge can’t be ruled out, especially if people let down their guard and become less careful as mask restrictions are lifted.
“There is this lurking threat of BA.2. And we need to make sure this isn't going to be a problem before we roll back all the mandates, before we tell everybody that it’s safe,” Scarpino said.
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